Brazil 2023/2024 soybean crop view slashed by 7.5 mln T -Patria


By Roberto Samora

SAO PAULO, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Brazil's 2023/2024 soybean crop will total 143.18 million metric tons, 7.5 million tons below a previous forecast of 150.7 million tons of production, according to a new report by Patria Agronegocios on Thursday.

Brazil's total corn crop will reach 110.29 million tons, down from the 112.51 million tons in a previous forecast, Patria said, citing climate risk.

Private consultancies have said that Brazil's soy crop outlook had worsened, but none has been as pessimistic as Patria. At least two forecasters this month lowered output expectations for Brazil's soy crop, to between 151 million and 153 million tons.

Patria has defended its methodology, saying that the resumption of rains was not widespread and the showers that did occur could not save the plants.

"Today, more than half of Brazilian soybeans are already in a reproductive stage," said Matheus Pereira, Patria's founder. "The entire vegetative phase that faced drought and heat has already limited yield potential."

The Brazilian government this week said that the country, the world's biggest supplier of the oilseed, will produce around 155 million tons of soy.

This is lower than initially projected by crop agency Conab but still slightly higher than last season, in spite of extreme weather harming crops in key regions.

For second corn, which is planted after soybeans are harvested and represent about 75% of corn production in a given year, Patria said the planting window "remains the main concern."

If the El Niño pattern persists for another 2 to 3 months, "further cuts in yield and area will be likely," Patria said, referring to overall corn production.

(Reporting by Roberto Samora Writing by Ana Mano Editing by Chris Reese)

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