Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT) to Post Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. BOOT is poised to face a decline in its top-line performance as it prepares to unveil its fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings results on May 14 after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its quarterly revenues is pegged at $383.7 million, which indicates a decline of 9.9% from the year-ago figure.

Moreover, analysts anticipate a downturn in earnings, with the current Zacks Consensus Estimate pegged at 89 cents per share. This projection signifies a substantial 41.8% decrease from the earnings reported in the corresponding period of the previous year. The consensus estimate has witnessed a downward revision of 3.3% over the past 30 days, which implies cautious sentiment among analysts regarding Boot Barn's financial performance.

Key Factors to Note

Boot Barn Holdings confronts significant challenges in revenue generation, driven by several key factors. The company faces soft same-store sales, e-commerce hurdles, regional variability and a tough operational landscape, all of which collectively dampen its revenue prospects.

Management's guidance for the quarter under review underscores these challenges, with an anticipated 6.3-9% decline in same-store sales, reflecting challenges in driving consumer spending within existing store locations. Additionally, the company forecasted a 5.5-8.5% decline in retail store same-store sales and a significant 13% drop in e-commerce same-store sales, signaling pressure on the online channel due to less marketing spend.

Additionally, the anticipated flat to down 100 basis points decline in exclusive brand penetration for the quarter highlights potential hurdles in sustaining growth momentum, particularly attributed to softness in the women’s business segment.

The aforementioned factors collectively contribute to the company's projection of a 9.3-11.7% decline in total sales for the quarter. Furthermore, management's guided range of 34.8-35.2% for the gross margin indicates a contraction from the 36.6% reported in the year-ago period. This pressure is attributed to an envisioned 310 basis points of deleverage in buying, occupancy and distribution center costs.

Despite these challenges, Boot Barn Holdings remains committed to enhancing customer engagement and brand loyalty through strategic initiatives such as expanding its store network, implementing customer segmentation strategies and leveraging innovative AI technologies.

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. Quote

What the Zacks Model Unveils

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Boot Barn Holdings this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. However, that’s not the case here.

Boot Barn Holdings has a Zacks Rank #3 but an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are three companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:

Abercrombie & Fitch ANF currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.10% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings per share is pegged at $1.54, sharply up from 39 cents registered in the year-ago period. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Abercrombie & Fitch’s top line is expected to ascend year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $940 million, which indicates an increase of 12.4% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. ANF has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 715.6%, on average.

American Eagle Outfitters AEO currently has an Earnings ESP of +11.11% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is likely to register an increase in the bottom line when it reports first-quarter fiscal 2024 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly earnings per share of 27 cents suggests an increase of 58.8% from the year-ago quarter.

American Eagle Outfitters’ top line is anticipated to rise year over year. The consensus mark for revenues is pegged at $1.15 billion, which implies an increase of 5.9% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. AEO has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 22.7%, on average.

Ross Stores ROST currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.24% and carries a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings per share is pegged at $1.34, which suggests an increase of 22.9% year over year.

Ross Stores’ top line is expected to ascend year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.82 billion, which implies a jump of 7.3% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. ROST has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.1%, on average.

Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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