BlackBerry (BBRY) Stock Soars on Possible 'Four-Bagger' Prediction

Blackberry ()

Blackberry ()

You would have to go back almost two and a half years to find the last time shares of BlackBerry (BBRY) traded at double digits.

Shares of the embattled Canadian company soared as much as 8% Tuesday, reaching a session high of $10.41 following a huge endorsement from Macquarie analyst Gus Papageorgiou. In a research note to investors on Tuesday, Papageorgiou laid out a scenario where he sees BBRY stock reaching $45 per share, which would translate to a gain of almost 400% from Monday’s close. Calling this prediction bullish would be a gross understatement.

Papageorgiou’s call is centered around the company’s RADAR solution, which he estimates will be the main driver of not only sustainable and predictable revenues, but also higher drive higher margins. Papageorgiou’s model calls for BlackBerry to reach 500,000 RADAR units in the next three years — a number he expects will eventually triple, while raking in $20 per month (on average). He also sees gross margins reaching 50% based on 1 million additional unit sales.

“It’s not hard to see BlackBerry earning $2 billion of software revenue and $1.82 per share of earnings by its fiscal year 2020,” Papageorgiou said, according to The Fly.

The analysts is banking quite a bit on the RADAR system, which according to BlackBerry, is a service designed to provide customers with information about their trailer, chassis, and container fleets that matches reality. “Radar provides more sensor readings more often than any other solution on the market today,” the company says.

Given that BlackBerry is projected to earn 2 cents per share this fiscal year and 8 cents per share next year, $1.82 per share by 2020 seems far away. Can BlackBerry get there? Papageorgiou believes it can. RADAR customers "are seeing a reduction in the amount of trailers needed to manage existing sales thanks to the more efficient use of the assets," says Papageorgiou according to The Fly.

To be sure, Papageorgiou's neck is not completely on the line. His $45 per share target by 2020 is is best-case scenario. Though he has an Outperform rating on BBRY stock, his 12-month price target is $11.80, which calls 15% premium from current levels.

Once the darling of Wall Street for pioneering the smartphone market, the Canadian-based tech giant has since ceded the hardware market to both Apple (AAPL) and Samsung (SSNLF). But all is not lost. Under CEO John Chen, BlackBerry has begun to carve out a niche in software and services. And now Wall Street has begun to take notice about other catalysts the market could be ignoring.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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Richard Saintvilus

After having spent 20 years in the IT industry serving in various roles from system administration to network engineer, Richard Saintvilus became a finance writer, covering the investor's view on the premise that everyone deserves a level playing field. His background as an engineer with strong analytical skills helps him provide actionable insights to investors. Saintvilus is a Warren Buffett disciple who bases his investment decisions on the quality of a company's management, its growth prospects, return on equity and other metrics, including price-to-earnings ratios. He employs conservative strategies to increase capital, while keeping a watchful eye on macro-economic events to mitigate downside risk. Saintvilus' work has been featured on CNBC, Yahoo! Finance, MSN Money, Forbes, Motley Fool and numerous other outlets. You can follow him on Twitter at @Richard_STv.

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