Editor’s Note: This article is part of InvestorPlace.com’s . Kent Thune’s pick for the contest is the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:).

As economic conditions in the U.S. and around the globe continue to deteriorate, some of the best ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:) become increasingly important holdings for a diversified portfolio.

In the first half of 2019, investors were rewarded for taking market risk. But the second half could be a completely different story. As I cautioned in my March installment for the best ETFs in 2019, this year may be “a tale of two markets, as economic indicators point to eroding conditions as the year progresses.”

Why GLD Is Among the Best ETFs

If GLD is not the best ETF for 2019, it will certainly rank among the best holdings for a diversified portfolio in the year. Since price movement for gold bullion has such a low correlation with broad stock market indices, such as the S&P 500 index, gold ETFs that passively track the precious metal make great hedging tools. When stock prices fall, gold prices will commonly rise. But the factors that influence the price of gold are not that simple.

Here are the key factors that impact the price of gold and how they support GLD in 2019:

As the second quarter of 2019 was winding to a close, stock prices were hitting all-time highs even as gold and bond prices pushed to multi-year highs. In translation, stock investors are betting on a stronger economy ahead while the gold and bond markets are indicating weakness. Only time will tell which argument will win. If Q2 2019 is any indication, gold has the momentum as GLD was up 9% and the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:) was up 3% for the quarter, coming into the final week of June.

With that said, the smart money won’t place any big bets in any one asset or investment security. Instead, a stronger portfolio structure can be the best move now. Under-weighting stocks and over-weighting gold and bonds will likely prove to be the best play in the second half of 2019.

As of this writing, Kent Thune did not personally hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. However, he holds GLD and SPY in some client accounts. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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