The first client note from Barclays for the new year has hit the nail on the head today:
- The FX market will likely start 2016 with a strong sense of déjà vu
- Many themes from last year remain firmly in place
- Most notable are the monetary policy divergence led by the Fed
- Lower commodity prices
- The role of a weaker China/EM in the global recovery
On the data due this week:
- Chinese manufacturing PMI is likely to disappoint ( it did )
- Euro area inflation should remain very low (Tuesday)
- Friday's US NFP report is likely to beat expectations (Barclays: 225k; consensus: 200k), supporting continued Fed tightening
More from Barclays on their expectations for this week's (Friday) US nonfarm payroll report:
- The USD will likely find support in Friday's NFP report
- Average job creation of 150k or more during the next few employment reports should be consistent with a gradual increase in the fed funds rate
- Therefore, taking into account our expectations of a creation of 225k jobs in December (consensus: 200k), we think the USD will outperform and the Fed will be comfortable delivering another 25bp hike in H1, followed by an additional 50bp of hikes in H2 this year
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.