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Bank of New York Mellon (BK) Up 3.4% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Bank of New York Mellon (BK). Shares have added about 3.4% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Bank of New York Mellon due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

BNY Mellon Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates, Costs Flare Up

BNY Mellon's third-quarter 2018 earnings per share of $1.06 surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.04. The figure reflects an improvement of 12.8% from the prior-year quarter.

Results benefited from an improvement in revenues along with provision benefits. Also, assets under management reflected growth. However, rise in expenses acted as a headwind.

Net income applicable to common shareholders for the quarter under review was $1.08 billion, up from $983 million recorded in the prior-year quarter.

Revenues Improve, Costs Rise

Total revenues (GAAP basis) for the reported quarter inched up 1% year over year to $4.07 billion.

Net interest revenues, on a fully taxable-equivalent basis, were $896 million, up 5% year over year. The rise was primarily driven by higher interest rates, partly offset by lower deposits and other borrowings.

Also, net interest margin expanded 12 basis points year over year to 1.28%.

Total fee and other revenues remained almost unchanged at $3.17 billion as compared with the prior-year quarter. Increase in investment services fees, investment management and performance fees were offset by lower foreign exchange and other trading revenues along with reduced investment and other income.

Total non-interest expenses were $2.74 billion, increasing 3% year over year. This reflects an increase in all expense components, except for bank assessment charges, amortization of intangible assets, distribution and servicing costs,and net occupancy expenses.

Strong Asset Position

As of Sep 30, 2018, AUM was $1.8 trillion, up slightly year over year. This reflected higher market values, and was partly offset by the sale of CenterSquare Investment Management and some other changes along with the unfavorable impact of a stronger U.S. dollar (principally versus the British pound).

Moreover, assets under custody and administration of $34.5 trillion were up 7% year over year. Higher market values and business growth largely drove the increase.

Credit Quality Improves

As of Sep 30, 2018, non-performing assets were $81 million, down from $94 million registered in the prior-year quarter end. In addition, allowance for loan losses decreased 13% year over year to $140 million. Provision for credit losses was a benefit of $3 million compared with a benefit of $6 million in the year-ago quarter.

Capital Position

As of Sep 30, 2018, common equity Tier 1 ratio (Standardized Basel 3 fully phased-in) was 11.2% compared with 10.7% as of Sep 30, 2017. Tier 1 Leverage ratio (Advanced approach) was 7%, up from 6.6% registered as of Sep 30, 2017.

Share Repurchase

During the quarter ending on September, BNY Mellon bought back 12 million shares for $602 million.

Outlook

Management is of the opinion that a rising rate scenario, along with the repositioning of the small securities portfolio, will positively impact NIM as well as NIR. As a result, higher NIM and NIR will more than offset the reduced size of the balance sheet (if non-interest bearing deposits contract as expected).

The company expects NIR in the fourth quarter to be almost similar to the third quarter 2018 level. Moreover, performance fee in the fourth quarter is expected to be stable year over year.

The company expects investment and other income of $40-$60 million in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Of the total estimated cost of relocation of corporate headquarters of $75 million, $12 million was incurred in second-quarter 2018. The remainder is expected to be recorded in fourth-quarter 2018.

The effective tax rate is anticipated to be around 21% for 2018.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates flatlined during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Bank of New York Mellon has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a B. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Bank of New York Mellon has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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