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Australia Q3 GDP: -0.5% q/q (expected -0.1%, prior +0.5%)

September quarter GDP from Australia

Contraction of 0.5% q/q ... MISS (and a bad one, much worse than consensus estimates)

  • expected -0.1% q/q, prior revised higher to +0.6%, from +0.5%
  • Today's q/q contraction is the worst performance for the economy since March of 2011

Up 1.8% y/y

  • expected +2.2%, prior +3.3%

More (data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics):

  • Private investment in new buildings detracted 0.3 percentage points from GDP growth,
  • New engineering and new and used dwellings detracted 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points respectively
  • Public capital expenditure detracted 0.5 percentage points
  • Net exports detracted an additional 0.2 percentage points from growth
  • Australia's terms of trade rose 4.5 per cent through the September quarter

Crystalizing the 'soft patch' for the economy July - September.

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If Q4 is negative (q/q ) also this would meet the definition for a technical recession (

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AUD has dropped since the release. the result (-0.5% q/q) is at the lower end of the estimates (consensus was -0.1%), so tis a very bad miss indeed.

more to come

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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