AUDUSD Daily Chart

AUD/USD NFP Game Plan- Constructive Above of 7280 -

Talking Points

  • AUD/USD targeting resistance ahead of NFPS
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
  • Clic k H ere to be added to Michael's email distribution list .


Technical Outlook: Aussie failed to break through the lower median-line parallel last month with the subsequent rebound breaking through confluence resistance today at 7282 . This level is defined by the 2016 open and the 50-line of the operative descending pitchfork formation. Note that daily RSI broke above a multi-month resistance trigger yesterday and keeps our focus weighted to the topside while above this threshold. Resistance is now eyed at 7397 where the 38.2% retracement converges on the median-line (area of interest for exhaustion / short-entries).

AUD/USD 120min

Notes: A closer look at price action highlights a breach & retest of the 7282 resistance zone with immediate topside resistance objectives eyed at 7370 & 7397 . A breach above this mark would be needed to suggest a larger reversal is underway in the pair.

Bullish invalidation rests with the weekly / monthly open at 7200 - a break below this level would shift the focus back to the short-side with such a scenario targeting 7144/60 & the 100% extension of the November decline at 7088 . A quarter of the daily average true range (ATR) yields profit targets of 17-20pips per scalp. Added caution is warranted heading into tomorrow's highly anticipated U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report with the release likely to fuel added volatility in the dollar crosses. Follow the real-time news feed for live updates during the release.

AUDUSD Speculative Sentiment Index (Daily Chart)

A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are long AUD/USD- the ratio stands at +1.46. While the current SSI profile remains bearish, it's important to note that the pullback in long positioning from the November extreme of 2.55 has been accompanied by a broader turn in the exchange rate and a flip to net-short in the coming days could further validate this near-term reversal play. That said, I'll be looking for a continued build in short positioning to suggest a more significant low may be in place.

Relevant Data Releases

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Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

J oin Michael for Live Weekly Trading Webinar s on Mondays on DailyFX at 1 3:30 GMT ( 8 :30ET)

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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