AUDUSD Daily Chart

AUD/USD Eyeing Topside Targets Ahead of Aussie Jobs Report -

Talking Points

  • AUD/USD trade remains constructive but beware of exhaustion
  • Updated targets & invalidation levels
  • Looking for more trade ideas? Review DailyFX's 2017 Trading Guides . Join Michael for Live Weekly Trading Webinar s on Mondays at 13:30GMT (8:30ET)


AUD/USD 120 min

Technical Outlook: Aussie has been holding a well-defined range between just above the January highs at 7609 into 7699 . Note that the pair has continued to respect this slope extending off the December/January lows and heading into tonight's Australia employment report, I'll favor the long-side while above the weekly lows with broader bullish invalidation at 7570 - a region defined by the 23.6 % retracement, the lower parallel & would necessitate a break back below the monthly open.

A breach higher still faces a series of resistance targets at 7735 , 7756 & the November highs a 7778 . Added caution is warranted heading into tonight's Australia employment report with the release likely to fuel volatile in the Aussie crosses. Keep in mind markets are anticipating a gain of 10K jobs for the month of January with unemployment & labor force participation widely expected to hold at 5.8% & 64.7% respectively. That said, the risk is to the downside in price on a miss in the data.

From a trading standpoint, I would be looking to fade weakness while above the slope support we tagged last night with a stretch into the topside targets on the data release likely to offer near-term opportunities on the short-side.

  • A summary of the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) shows traders are short AUDUSD- the ratio stands at -1.65 (38% of traders are long)- bullish reading
  • Long positions are 0.1% higher than yesterday but 9.3% below levels seen last week
  • Short positions are 9.9% lower than yesterday but 7.7% above levels seen last week
  • Open interest is 6.4% lower than yesterday and 1.3% below its monthly average
  • While the current SSI profile continues to point higher, it's worth noting that the continued narrowing in the ratio from recent extremes does leave the long-bias vulnerable near-term while within this price range.

Relevant Data Releases

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Other Setups in Play:

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex contact him at or Clic k H ere to be added to his email distribution list .

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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