Apple's iPhone 6S Sales: How to Beat Wall Street
U.S. stocks looks set to end the week on a positive note, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 up 1.24%, and 0.77%, respectively, at 1 p.m. EDT.
It's not all that surprising that foot traffic should be closely related to sales. The tricky part is getting decent foot traffic data, which plays to Foursquare's strength since users "check in" with regard to the locations they are visiting. Foursquare believes it has access to "the world's best "panel" of global foot traffic and is a strong enough sample size to be a strong indicator of sales overall."
On that basis, it concludes:
Based on these early indicators, Foursquare predicts that launch day foot traffic will be about 360% of a typical Friday. This likely means that Apple will sell 13-15 million iPhones this weekend, surpassing all previous records.
Before you start to pop the champagne corks, it's worth noting that not all crowdsourced data confirms Foursquare's optimism outlook. The following graph shows the search interest on Google for the term "iPhone 6S" over time (blue line), as well as the interest for the terms "iPhone 6" (red) and "iPhone 5S" (yellow):
You can see that the most recent point (this month) on the graph for "iPhone 6S" is much lower than last year's spike for "iPhone 6," but it's at roughly the same level as "iPhone 5S" on its launch in September 2013. (Caveat: Google only has partial data for this month.)
With all of that said, in the frenzy of attention surrounding Apple's launch weekend, it's easy to overstate the importance of the sales numbers. As Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein wrote in a recent research note to clients:
Additionally, we would note that
Perhaps Wall Street analysts are still useful after all.
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Alex Dumortier, CFA , has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns and recommends Apple. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days . We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .
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