Apellis Pharmaceuticals (APLS) Down 8.7% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (APLS). Shares have lost about 8.7% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Apellis Pharmaceuticals due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Apellis’ Q4 Earnings Miss, Revenues Meet Estimates

Apellisreported fourth-quarter 2023 loss of 73 cents per share, which was wider than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 66 cents. The company had reported a loss of $1.50 per share in the year-ago quarter.

Total revenues amounted to $146.4 million in the fourth quarter, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate. In the year-ago quarter, the company had reported revenues of $22.6 million.

The top line jumped almost 545% year over year owing to higher sales of Syfovre in the reported quarter.

Quarter in Detail

Revenues in the reported quarter included product sales of the marketed drugs — Empaveli and Syfovre — and licensing and other revenues, under the collaboration agreement with Sobi.

Syfovre recorded sales of $114.3 million in the fourth quarter, increasing around 51.4% sequentially owing to continued strong demand.

Syfovre sales marginally beat our model estimate of $114 million.

Apellis delivered more than 55,000 commercial vials and nearly 6,400 samples of Syfovre to doctors in the fourth quarter. As of Dec 31, 2023, the total number of doses of the drug delivered since launch was reportedly more than 160,000.

The potential approval and successful launch of Syfovre in additional geographies will add an incremental stream of revenues to APLS.

In October 2023, APLS received the permanent J-code for Syfovre, which is likely to help the company streamline billing and reimbursement of the medicine.

Empaveli recorded sales of $24.4 million in the reported quarter, up 23.8% from the year-ago quarter’s figure, owing to the increasing number of patient switches from AstraZeneca’s Ultomiris (eculizumab).

Empaveli sales, too, were almost in line with our model estimate of $24.3 million.

Licensing and other revenues came in at $7.7 million, up 156.7% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.

Research and development expenses decreased 30.3% from the prior-year quarter’s level to $69.3 million. This was due to a decrease in program-specific external costs and other external costs.

General and administrative expenses totaled $141.7 million, up 67.8% from the year-ago quarter’s figure. This was driven by higher employee-related costs and higher office costs.

As of Dec 31, 2023, Apellis had cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities worth $351.2 million compared with $452.4 million as of Sep 30, 2023. APLS expects its cash balance, combined with cash anticipated from sales of marketed products, to be enough to fund its operations in the foreseeable future.

Full-Year Results

In 2023, Apellis generated revenues of $396.6 million, compared with $75.4 million reported in 2022.

In the same period, the company recorded a loss of $4.45 per share compared with a loss of $6.15 in 2022.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in estimates revision.

The consensus estimate has shifted -15.77% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

At this time, Apellis Pharmaceuticals has a subpar Growth Score of D, a grade with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. Notably, Apellis Pharmaceuticals has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Apellis Pharmaceuticals belongs to the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry. Another stock from the same industry, Moderna (MRNA), has gained 13.5% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended December 2023.

Moderna reported revenues of $2.81 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -44.7%. EPS of $0.55 for the same period compares with $3.61 a year ago.

Moderna is expected to post a loss of $3.15 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of -1757.9%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -3.9%.

Moderna has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of F.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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