From ANZ's 'FX Insight ' out today
This is in (very) brief, but the gist of what ANZ are saying (bolding mine):
AUD/NZD - THE CONUNDRUM CROSS
- The AUD/NZD is once again edging back towards historically low levels despite a number of traditional fundamentals continuing to suggest that it is cheap.
- Other factors, like relative wages, migration, and foreign bond ownership, suggest that current levels are closer to fair and that the NZD has enjoyed a relative image upgrade. However, these factors are not likely to push much further in favour of the NZD.
- As such, while on a medium-term horizon the current level of the cross presents value, to get tactically bullish we would need to see either a more definitive shift in the liquidity environment or broadening evidence that the worst of Australia's wages stagnation has passed.
ANZ's model suggest higher for the cross:
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
