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ANZ on EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD - ranges and forecasts

From ANZ's 'FX Monthly Outlook'

In (very) brief:

OVERVIEW AND STRATEGY:

  • USD weakening trend has broadened and a more synchronised US dollar sell-off has ensued ... However, as we look to the second half of this year, we think there are still major question marks around the sustainability of this sell-off and think it is too early to say that the USD cycle has made a major turn.

THEMES:

  • EUR/USD is likely to remain sandwiched between competing forces, implying no imminent return of large or persistent currency moves
  • GBP, however, remains trending and friendless. We view 1.35-1.40 as the likely bottom of the range
  • The AUD and the NZD have continued to rally at a faster pace than fundamentals suggest and are setting up for another test lower, though a near-term reversion looks unlikely
  • In Asia we view recent stability as temporary and continue to look for the weakening trend to reassert. While CNY has continued to adjust against its basket, we think that further weakness against the USD is still a necessary part of its adjustment.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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