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Analyst Actions: Suncor Energy Estimates Lowered at Credit Suisse

Suncor Withdraws from Syria. "Suncor has declared force majeure under its contractual obligations and is suspending operations with the General Petroleum Corporation ( GPC ) in Syria. The company reports that these actions have been taken as a result of sanctions on Syria announced by the European Union on Dec. 2, 2011. Suncor produced ~19 kboe/d in Syria during Q311 and our prior company-wide production forecast of 568 kboe/d for 2012 included 18 kboe/d of production from Syria."

No Change to 2012 Guidance. "With production in Libya now coming back on stream following the recent political events and averaging ~15-20 kb/d, Suncor has decided to maintain its current guidance that company-wide production will average 530-580 kboe/d in 2012. No Libyan production had been previously included in the 2012 guidance. Prior to the political events of earlier this year, Suncor's Libyan production had averaged ~35 kb/d in Q410."

Non-Material Changes to 2012 EPS/CFPS Forecasts. "Total government 'take' in Libya is about twice that in Syria. Thus, despite re-introducing 20 kb/d of Libyan oil production back into our 2012 forecast to offset the Syrian production, we have lowered our operating EPS/CFPS forecasts from C$3.60/C$6.54 to C$3.55/C$6.48 for 2012. We have made no changes to our 2013 and beyond forecasts at this time."

Valuation: "Suncor's shares are trading at 5.1x 2012E EBIDAX versus 6.0x for its North American Integrated peers. Our C$50.00 target price remains unchanged and to equates to 8.0x our 2012E EBIDAX forecast of C$10,635 million, a modest premium to our C$48.50 net asset value"

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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