Markets

Analyst Actions: PetroBakken Estimates Revised at Credit Suisse After Changes in Oil Price Forecasts

Brent price forecast unchanged but NYMEX weakness could persist near-term. "Credit Suisse has updated its commodity price view to reflect downward adjustment to NYMEX natural gas prices and a narrower differential between WTI and Brent. The Brent oil price forecast itself is unchanged. For NYMEX gas, Credit Suisse expects weakness to persist near-term as production takes time to fall in response to falling rig counts (mitigating factors include wells behind pipe, liquids drilling and efficiency gains). The long term view of the NYMEX gas price is unchanged at $5.50. The Brent forecast continues to reflect a 3.4% global GDP growth rate for 2012 with downside demand risk balanced by real supply risk across MENA and other significant producers (e.g., Venezuela, Russia, Nigeria). Please see our full report for complete details of changes, including for Edmonton Par, AECO and the WCS differential."

Revising PetroBakken Estimates After New Oil Price Forecasts. "Incorporating our new oil and gas price forecasts and recent guidance for production, capital expenditures and a new DRIP program for 2012, we have made the following changes to full year estimates for PetroBakken. Our 2011 EPS/CFPS go from C$1.36/3.51 to C$1.50/3.71 while 2012 go from C$1.36/4.55 to C$1.45/4.50. Our 2013 EPS estimate is also lowered to C$2.32 from C$2.36."

Maintains C$17 Price Target. "With only modest changes to our 2012 and 2013 estimates, we are maintaining our target of C$17 at this time. Our target is based on 4.00x 2013E EBIDAX of C$1,227 million, a ~35% discount to mid-cap peers given lower liquidity and capital structure uncertainties, including refinance of convertible debt."

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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