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Analyst Actions: Goldcorp Target Trimmed at Credit Suisse

Reducing TP to $40 (from $41) and maintaining Neutral rating: "We update our model for Goldcorp's 2013 investor day and include quarterly estimates for 2013/2014. Refer to the valuation section for our NAV estimate by asset in the full report. We are revising our 2013/2014/2015 EPS estimates to $1.95/$2.57/$2.36 (from $1.93/$2.66/$2.48) respectively."

Q1/13 to be a weaker quarter: "Our Q1/13 estimate of $0.29/sh (FD) or $0.30/sh (basic) is well below the $0.39/sh current enhanced Bloomberg estimate. We are expecting a weak quarter out of Penasquito on grades."

CS models higher all-in sustaining costs for Cerro Negro and Eleonore, reduces NAV: "Our NAV estimate for Cerro Negro declines 19% to $1.6B and Eleonore by 35% to $0.9B. Refer to modeling revisions section."

Upside potential at Camino Rojo ($0.6B) now in model: "While the potential is significant, we note that the asset is in early stages and GG will continue drilling for the next couple of years with no feasibility timeline."

Investment thesis: "We believe the market is already baking in results for 2013 at the top end of GG guidance. While we do like the underlying company we don't see it as undervalued vs. its peers. GG trades at 1.25x P/NAV, above ABX at 1.15x and at a deserved premium on a CF basis GG trades at 14.7x on our 2013E OpCFa and 10.0x on 2014, vs. ABX at 8.0x and 6.4x, respectively (and senior peers at 11.0x and 8.4x, respectively). We believe that KGC and ABX will re-rate on CF metrics over the next year."

Catalysts: "(1) Penasquito water study by Q2/13; (2) PV ramp up to full production by H2/13; (3) Production from Cerro Negro by Q4/13 (CS est. is Q1/14); (4) Eleonore drilling from underground by 2013YE; (5) Los Filos expansion opportunity tested by 2013YE; (6) Cochenour haulage drift completion (Q1/14). CS also sees the resolution of the underlying issue of extricating funds out of Argentina as a significant catalyst, refer to First Read: Investor Day mixed, some negatives, some positives, published on March 10."

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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