--Analyst Actions: Credit Suisse Keeps Neutral Rating and $32 TP, But Revises Estimates for Canadian Oil Sands

Credit Suisse has kept a Neutral rating and $32 target price, but revised its estimates on Canadian Oil Sands Limited (COS.TO).

Q1 Results: "COS has reported operating cash flow of C$0.98 for Q111, in line with our C$0.98 estimate, but slightly below consensus of C$1.03. We calculate operating EPS of C$0.63, above our C$0.56 forecast."

Mine Train Capex Clarified: "While we expected key guidance for future project capital costs to not be provided till summer, COS has released "early" cost estimates for select projects, totaling C$2.5 billion. Approximately C$1.6 billion (+/-25%) is for the Mildred Lake mine train replacements and Aurora North mine train relocations, above our initial C$1.4 billion estimate. We note guidance is yet to be provided for the Aurora South development, other tailings management or maintenance post 2011."

Dividend Increased to C$0.30/sh: "COS has increased its dividend from the current C$0.20/sh to C$0.30/share for Q2 2011. This was above our C$0.25 estimate and consensus of C$0.27."

Guidance: "COS is still budgeting 2011 Syncrude production to average 301,400 b/d (110,700 b/d net to COS). While capital expenditures are now estimated at C$979 million (versus C$927 million previously), we note that this is mainly due to capitalized interest of C$60 million and is the result of new IFRS disclosure. Excluding capitalized interest, the forecast is largely unchanged. Operating costs increased from C$36.79/bbl to C$37.51/bbl."

Revising Estimates: "Adjusting for Q1 results and changes to capital guidance, we have revised our EPS/CFPS forecasts. Our estimates go from C$2.12/C$3.61 to C$2.30/C$3.76 in 2011, from C$2.43/C$4.01 to C$2.41/C$3.99 in 2012 and from C$3.29/C$4.98 to C$3.42/C$5.38 in 2013."

Valuation: "Our C$32.00 target price continues to be based on 8.0x 2012E EBIDAX of C$2,018 million and is set in line with our C$32.00/sh asset value."

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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