Negative Guidance. "Goldcorp provided updated guidance after market close, which reflected reduced production guidance for 2013-2016. We had expected a negative guidance update, with our focus on Penasquito. We were concerned Street expectations were too high at Penasquito prior to our downgrade, with our key area of concern the twofold issue of grade and throughput. 2013 Penasquito production is now guided to 360-400kozs, vs. 411kozs in 2012 and Credit Suisse at 415kozs, with throughput of ~105ktpd vs. Credit Suisse at 107ktpd and grades likely lower than Credit Suisse est. of 0.53g/t."
Production Guidance In-Line. "2013 production guidance at 2.55-2.8Mozs in-line with Credit Suisse at 2.73Mozs, but costs miss, by-product costs are expected to be $525-575/oz vs. our current forecast of $263/oz, on less by-products than Credit Suisse estimate. 2013 co-product guidance of $700-$750/oz is ~10% above Credit Suisse estimate at $656/oz."
Concerns about Street capex expectations vs. Credit Suisse at $2.72B: "Capex came in 3% above Credit Suisse est. at $ 2.8B with 60% or $1.7B (Credit Suisse at $1.8B) related to projects and 40% or $1.1B at operations (Credit Suisseat $0.8B)."
Overall capex at major projects up as expected: "with Cerro Negro capex escalating to $1.35B (Credit Suisse at $1.36B), $0.54B for Cochenour (vs. Credit Suisse at $0.57B). Eleonore came in higher than Credit Suisse estimates of $1.4B at $1.75B."
Five-year production guidance revised down as expected "... with production revised down from prior guidance by -16%, -12%, -9% and -7% in 2013/14/15/16, respectively."
Reflecting Red Lake, Penasquito and revised project start ups: "Cerro Negro (as previously released) to late 2013 from H2/13; Cochenour from 2014 to H1/15 and full production from 250-275kozspa to 225-250kozspa; deferral of Camino Rojo from 2014 to 2016; Eleonore remaining at late 2014 startup; and as previously released, El Morro has been suspended (vs 2017)."
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Copyright (C) 2016 MTNewswires.com. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
