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Analyst Actions: Canadian Natural Resources Keeps Outperform at Credit Suisse

Revising Down 2013 - 2015 EPS: "When Canadian Natural reported its Q412 results on March 7, 2013, operating EPS of C$0.33 was below our C$0.39 estimate and consensus of C$0.41. Relative to our forecast, earnings were impacted by higher DD&A and ARO charges of C$20.64/boe versus our C$17.96/boe forecast. Given the higher-than-expected DD&A and ARO charges, we have lowered our operating EPS forecasts from C$2.57/C$3.18/C$3.05 to C$2.27/C$2.95/C$2.75, for 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively."

Minor Revisions to 2013 - 2015 CFPS: "With pre-tax operating cash flow totaling C$1,890 million in Q412 compared with our C$1,897 million forecast, the better-than-expected Q412 CFPS of C$1.41 versus our C$1.37 estimate and consensus of C$1.44 was primarily due to lower-than-expected cash taxes. With no change to guidance and after adjusting for various non-production related expenses, we are making only minor."

Valuation: "CNQ is trading at 5.6x 2013E EBIDAX versus 5.6x for its North American E&P peers. During both the past 3- and 5-year periods, the shares have traded, on average, at 7.1x the current year's EBIDAX. As Canadian Natural is primarily valued on a cash multiple basis and with no material change to our cash flow outlook, we continue to apply a 6.25x target multiple to our 2013E EBIDAX forecast of C$8,998 million (was C$9,137 million) to derive our C$45.00 target price which remains unchanged."

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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