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Alpari Grain Outlook 03/28

Let's address demand first. Mondays weekly export inspections report showed 20.7 million bushels of wheat was inspected for near-term export down from 23.9 the week prior and the four week average of 24. Though lower on the week, big players like Egypt were in for 4.8 million bushels versus 2.5 last week and China in for 2.2 versus 1.7 the week prior. Overall demand is good, but only good enough to keep selling away and not big enough to bring buyers to the market. To continue a rally we need supply side production problems with the emerging winter wheat crop. Last week's weather was good enough to improve crop ratings in key winter wheat producing states. Oklahoma was rated 26% good to excellent condition up 2% percent from the week prior, Texas 19% good to excellent up 3% and number one wheat producing state was Kansas at 29%; all versus the USDA last estimate of 33% nationally last November, a historically low number. We look for next week's condition update to show declines as below freezing temperatures in these states Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday all look to lend a level of stress. We won't know until the head and colonels appear when permanent yield and quality damage occurs. Reason, if it was cold enough and long enough the root cells collapse and can't carry the needed water and nutrients to the head.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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