Investors in Akoya Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKYA) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.7% to close at US$15.28 following the release of its second-quarter results. Revenues of US$18m beat expectations by a respectable 5.7%, although statutory losses per share increased. Akoya Biosciences lost US$0.47, which was 26% more than what the analysts had included in their models. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Akoya Biosciences from five analysts is for revenues of US$72.2m in 2022 which, if met, would be a meaningful 12% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$1.77 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$71.7m and losses of US$1.50 per share in 2022. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Akoya Biosciences even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a noticeable increase in per-share losses.
The consensus price target held steady at US$19.80, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Akoya Biosciences at US$25.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Akoya Biosciences' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2022 expected to display 26% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 34% over the past year. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.2% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Akoya Biosciences' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Akoya Biosciences. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$19.80, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Akoya Biosciences. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Akoya Biosciences going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Before you take the next step you should know about the 1 warning sign for Akoya Biosciences that we have uncovered.
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