Investors eyeing a purchase of Packaging Corp of America (Symbol: PKG) stock, but tentative about paying the going market price of $111.26/share, might benefit from considering selling puts among the alternative strategies at their disposal. One interesting put contract in particular, is the July 2020 put at the $100 strike, which has a bid at the time of this writing of $3.50. Collecting that bid as the premium represents a 3.5% return against the $100 commitment, or a 6.4% annualized rate of return (at Stock Options Channel we call this the YieldBoost).
Selling a put does not give an investor access to PKG's upside potential the way owning shares would, because the put seller only ends up owning shares in the scenario where the contract is exercised. And the person on the other side of the contract would only benefit from exercising at the $100 strike if doing so produced a better outcome than selling at the going market price. (Do options carry counterparty risk? This and six other common options myths debunked). So unless Packaging Corp of America sees its shares fall 10.3% and the contract is exercised (resulting in a cost basis of $96.50 per share before broker commissions, subtracting the $3.50 from $100), the only upside to the put seller is from collecting that premium for the 6.4% annualized rate of return.
Worth considering, is that the annualized 6.4% figure actually exceeds the 2.8% annualized dividend paid by Packaging Corp of America by 3.6%, based on the current share price of $111.26. And yet, if an investor was to buy the stock at the going market price in order to collect the dividend, there is greater downside because the stock would have to lose 10.27% to reach the $100 strike price.
Always important when discussing dividends is the fact that, in general, dividend amounts are not always predictable and tend to follow the ups and downs of profitability at each company. In the case of Packaging Corp of America, looking at the dividend history chart for PKG below can help in judging whether the most recent dividend is likely to continue, and in turn whether it is a reasonable expectation to expect a 2.8% annualized dividend yield.
Below is a chart showing the trailing twelve month trading history for Packaging Corp of America, and highlighting in green where the $100 strike is located relative to that history:
The chart above, and the stock's historical volatility, can be a helpful guide in combination with fundamental analysis to judge whether selling the July 2020 put at the $100 strike for the 6.4% annualized rate of return represents good reward for the risks. We calculate the trailing twelve month volatility for Packaging Corp of America (considering the last 251 trading day closing values as well as today's price of $111.26) to be 23%. For other put options contract ideas at the various different available expirations, visit the PKG Stock Options page of StockOptionsChannel.com.
In mid-afternoon trading on Monday, the put volume among S&P 500 components was 1.17M contracts, with call volume at 1.17M, for a put:call ratio of 0.72 so far for the day, which is above normal compared to the long-term median put:call ratio of .65. In other words, if we look at the number of call buyers and then use the long-term median to project the number of put buyers we'd expect to see, we're actually seeing more put buyers than expected out there in options trading so far today. Find out which 15 call and put options traders are talking about today.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.