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Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) Q4 Earnings: What's in Store?

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.AGIO is scheduled to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2016 results on Feb 16.

Agios' shares gained 10.3% so far this year, while the Zacks classified Medical Products industry witnessed an increase of 5.3%.

Agios' performance has been far from encouraging with company missing estimates thrice in the trailing four quarters. Overall, Agios has an average negative surprise of 77.80%.

In the last reported quarter, the company posted a negative surprise of 7.95%. Let's see how things are shaping up for this quarter.

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Quote

Factors at Play

Agios, a development-stage biopharmaceutical company, is focused on the formulation of treatments for cancer and rare genetic metabolic disorders. As a development-stage company, Agios does not have approved products in its portfolio yet. Investors are thus expected to keep an eye on pipeline updates at the company.

In this regard it is worth mentioning that the company has several interesting candidates in its pipeline. Its cancer pipeline comprises enasidenib (IDH2 mutant inhibitor), AG-120 (IDH1 mutant inhibitor) and AG-881 (pan-IDH mutant inhibitor). We note that Agios is developing enasidenib and AG-881 in collaboration with Celgene, which should bring in collaboration revenues.

Moreover, during the quarter (ended Dec 2016) Agios reported positive clinical data from the ongoing phase I study evaluating single agent AG-120 in advanced hematologic malignancies.

However, during the same period, Agios announced that it is has decided to discontinue the development of one of its PKR activator, AG-519. The decision was taken after the verbal notification of a clinical hold by the FDA, which led the company to withdraw its investigational new drug application for the candidate.

Notably, Agios has assured investors that the decision will not affect its ongoing open-label safety and efficacy phase II study (DRIVE PK) on its second PKR activator, AG-348, being conducted in transfusion-independent adult patients with PK deficiency.

The company is currently working on a registration path for AG-348 for the treatment of adult PK deficiency patients and plans to discuss this strategy with regulators.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Agios is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP is -2.58%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate stands at a loss of $1.59 per share, while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at a loss of $1.55 per share. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter .

Zacks Rank: Agios has a Zacks Rank #3. Though the company's favorable Zacks Rank increases the predictive power of the ESP, its negative Earnings ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. BMRN is expected to release results on Feb 23. The company has an Earnings ESP of +7.50% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here .

Acorda Therapeutics, Inc. ACOR is expected to release results on Feb 14. The company has an Earnings ESP of +5.56% and a Zacks Rank #3.

AMAG Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AMAG has an Earnings ESP of +3.23% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is expected to release results on Feb 14.

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Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO): Free Stock Analysis Report

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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