Aflac (AFL) to Report Q3 Earnings: Is a Beat in the Cards?

Aflac Incorporated AFL is scheduled to release third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 27, after the market closes.

Q3 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings per share is pegged at $1.30, indicating a fall of 6.47% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for revenues stands at $5.38 billion, which suggests a decline of 4.97% from the year-ago quarter’s reported number.

Factors to Impact Q3 Results

At Aflac’s Japan segment, revenues are likely to have gained from increased premium, driven by higher sales of its new medical product and improved pandemic conditions compared with the prior-year scenario.
At the U.S. segment, sales are likely to have gone up, aided by improved pandemic conditions.

Net investment income is likely to have gone up, primarily on higher variable net investment income.

Expenses are likely to have been high, weighing down the margins. Constant digital investments in its core technological platforms and their upgrades might have flared up costs. However, the company is trying to control costs wherever possible and to this end, it took numerous cost-curbing measures, which might have partially offset the stress on margins.

Earnings Surprise History

The company boasts an impressive earnings surprise history as its bottom line beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, the average being 19.92%. This is depicted in the chart below:

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

The proven Zacks model predicts an earnings beat for Aflac this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Earnings ESP:  Aflac has an Earnings ESP of +1.44%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $1.32 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.30. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank:  Aflac has a Zacks Rank #2, currently.

Other Stocks to Consider

Here are some other stocks worth considering from the insurance space with the perfect mix of elements to surpass estimates in their upcoming releases.

Cigna Corp. CI currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.19% and a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here..

Athene Holding Ltd. ATH currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.71% and is a Zacks #2 Ranked stock.

MetLife, Inc. MET currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.21% and is a Zacks #3 Ranked stock.


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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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