3 Reasons to Be Bullish on Mondelez International Inc

Mondelez International is the global snack giant behind consumer favorites like Oreo, Cadbury, Triscuits, Trident, and Tang. It's the world's leading producer of biscuits, chocolate, gum, candy, and powdered beverages.

The stock's total return (which includes dividends) over the one-year period through March 4 was 16.8% -- tastier than the S&P 500 and Hershey ' s losses of nearly 3% and 7%, respectively, and just a few bites better than the 14.3% return of J.M. Smucker . Mondelez stock, however, has been struggling in 2016 with a year-to-date loss of almost 7%.

Here are three reasons Mondelez shares could see positive momentum going forward.

Mondelez brands: Its coffee brands are now part of Jacobs Douwe Egberts, a coffee joint venture it formed with D.E. Master Blenders 1753 in 2015. Source: Mondelez.

1. Consumers in developing markets crave chocolate and other Western treats

Large numbers of people in emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Mexico are increasingly moving into the middle class. Their growing incomes are driving them to buy foods and beverages that they couldn't previously afford, such as chocolate.

Mondelez has benefited from this trend due to its significant and fast-growing presence in emerging markets. In 2015, these regions accounted for about 39% of the top line, and their importance is best illustrated by these facts:

  • The global chocolate market grew 3.7% in 2014, according to Nielsen figures that Mondelez provides in its earnings reports.
  • Meanwhile, the chocolate markets in many developing countries grew by double-digit percentages in 2014. South Korea, India, and China, for instance, experienced 19%, 18%, and 16% respective growth, according to Mintel data quoted by

That's a common pattern -- the collective growth rates for many categories of foods and snacks are much higher in developing countries than in the developed world. If consumers in emerging markets continue their love affair with chocolate and other snacks, and if Mondelez is successful at increasing its market share in these regions, the company's stock price should rise.

2. Currency headwinds could subside -- or become tailwinds

In 2014 and 2015, the U.S. dollar gained considerable strength against the euro and other currencies, as this chart shows:

Data by YCharts

The relative strength of the dollar hurt the reported revenue growth of U.S. companies that do a significant amount of international business, and that currency impact flows down to the bottom line. Mondelez earnings were particularly hard hit, as it generated 76% of its business abroad in 2015, with Europe being its largest market. Companies such as Hershey and Smucker haven't faced nearly the same degree of currency headwinds. Hershey primarily does business in North America, though it has a small emerging markets business. Smucker also sells the vast majority of its goods in the U.S. and Canada.

In 2016, however, the euro has rebounded and gained a little ground on the U.S. dollar:

Data by YCharts

Though we're only two months into 2016, it appears that the gale-force currency headwinds that Mondelez has faced in the last two years might at last be subsiding. If this proves to be the case, the company's reported year-over-year revenue growth will get a boost that should carry through to the bottom line, bringing share price gains along with it.

3. Activist investor Bill Ackman

Bill Ackman's hedge fund, Pershing Square, paid about $5.6 billion for a 7.5% stake in Mondelez last year, making it the company's largest investor. Activist investors typically acquire stakes in companies to force management to make big changes that will increase share prices, thereby netting them a tidy profit.

We can't know for sure what Ackman plans, but it's likely that additional cost-cutting efforts top the list. Mondelez, like many traditional snack food makers, has been struggling to grow its revenue, in part because consumers in the developed world are increasingly turning to fresh and less-processed foods -- cost-cutting has become the tool of choice to grow earnings.

There have also been many rumors that Ackman is trying to force a sale of the company to Kraft Heinz , or even Pepsi . Backed by 3G Capital and Berkshire Hathaway , Heinz recently merged with Kraft Foods, so the company is unlikely to tackle another major acquisition. The irony here is that Mondelez was formerly Kraft Foods' global snack business before it spun off the North American grocery segment in 2012 and renamed itself.

Regardless of his plans, Ackman and other activist investors are known for pushing management in new directions that could result in significant gains for shareholders.

A secret billion-dollar stock opportunity

The world's biggest tech company forgot to show you something, but a few Wall Street analysts and the Fool didn't miss a beat: There's a small company that's powering their brand-new gadgets and the coming revolution in technology. And we think its stock price has nearly unlimited room to run for early in-the-know investors! To be one of them, just click here .

The article 3 Reasons to Be Bullish on Mondelez International Inc originally appeared on

Beth McKenna has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Berkshire Hathaway and PepsiCo. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days . We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .

Copyright © 1995 - 2016 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

In This Story


Other Topics


Latest Markets Videos

The Motley Fool

Founded in 1993 in Alexandria, VA., by brothers David and Tom Gardner, The Motley Fool is a multimedia financial-services company dedicated to building the world's greatest investment community. Reaching millions of people each month through its website, books, newspaper column, radio show, television appearances, and subscription newsletter services, The Motley Fool champions shareholder values and advocates tirelessly for the individual investor. The company's name was taken from Shakespeare, whose wise fools both instructed and amused, and could speak the truth to the king -- without getting their heads lopped off.

Learn More