Personal Finance

2 Tech Stocks I'd Hate to Buy


In previousarticles , I listed numerous other tech stocks that I'd "hate" to buy. But since there's never a shortage of weak stocks to avoid, it's time to add two more names to that list -- Palo Alto Networks (NYSE: PANW) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) .


Image source: Getty Images.

Palo Alto Networks

On the surface, next-gen firewall provider Palo Alto Networks looks like a solid growth stock. Revenue rose 41% annually to $400.8 million last quarter, topping estimates by $11.1 million, and 49% for the full year. However, that growth represented a slowdown from 55% growth in 2015 and 51% growth in 2014.

That "slowdown" seems tame, but it also makes it harder to justify Palo Alto's price-to-sales ratio of 10. By comparison, its next-gen firewall rival Check Point and threat prevention firm FireEye -- which both have lower revenue growth rates -- both trade at 9 times sales. All three companies trade at a premium to the software industry's average P/S of 5.

The core problem with Palo Alto is that its expenses -- particularly stock-based compensation (SBC) expenses for high-paid sales and R&D jobs -- are outpacing its revenue growth. SBC expenses soared 75% last year and consumed 30% of its revenues, causing its GAAP net loss to widen from $165 million to $226 million. The additional shares it's issuing to cover SBC also boosted its share count by 25% over the past three years, diluting existing shares and inflating its multiples. Unless Palo Alto gets its costs under control, it could face cash flow problems in the near future -- so investors should avoid this stock until the company demonstrates better financial discipline.


I previously highlighted IBM as a decent income play with a solid forward yield of 3.5%, a sustainable payout ratio of 44%, and a low P/E of 13 -- which is much lower than the industry average of 21 for IT services companies. However, I personally wouldn't want to buy Big Blue for two reasons -- its turnaround plan is painfully slow, and rising interest rates could cause income investors to dump IBM as a dividend play while throttling is ability to use debt-funded buybacks.

IBM has posted 18 consecutive quarters of year-over-year revenue declines due to sluggish enterprise spending, competition, and currency headwinds throttling the growth of its IT services, software, and hardware businesses. The company's long-term turnaround plan is to divest weaker businesses while nurturing the growth of its five "strategic imperatives" -- cloud, analytics, mobile, security, and social platforms.

Revenue from those businesses, which accounted for 40% of IBM's revenue over the past 12 months, rose 16% annually last quarter. But that growth didn't bring Big Blue's sales growth back into positive territory, and its overall revenue fell 0.4%. Analysts expect IBM's revenue and earnings to respectively decline 2% and 10% this year. Therefore, I'd avoid IBM until it can prove that its strategic imperatives growth can offset its top line declines in other businesses.

But both stocks could eventually be worth buying...

Although I believe that Palo Alto and IBM aren't compelling buys today, investors should still keep an eye out for signs of improvement. For Palo Alto, this means that GAAP losses must narrow alongside non-GAAP income growth. It also must prove, through acquisitions or new services, that its "best in breed" reputation in next-gen firewalls can withstand fierce competition .

Meanwhile, IBM must prove that its inorganic growth strategy is actually fueling the growth of its strategic imperatives businesses. If IBM gets too aggressive with its purchases, it could "deworsify" those businesses instead of streamlining them for stronger growth. It also must introduce meaningful ways to counter cloud infrastructure leaders that are arguably leaving Big Blue behind in the cloud market. If Palo Alto and IBM can accomplish all those things, I'll reevaluate their stocks as potential buys.

Forget the 2016 Election: 10 stocks we like better than IBM

Donald Trump was just elected president, and volatility is up. But here's why you should ignore the election:

Investing geniuses Tom and David Gardner have spent a long time beating the market no matter who's in the White House. In fact, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, Motley Fool Stock Advisor , has tripled the market.*

David and Tom just revealed what they believe are the ten best stocks for investors to buy right now… and IBM wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys.

Click here to learn about these picks!

*Stock Advisor returns as ofNovember 7, 2016

Leo Sun has no position in any stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Check Point Software Technologies and FireEye. The Motley Fool recommends Palo Alto Networks. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days . We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

In This Story


Other Topics


Latest Personal Finance Videos

    #TradeTalks: Making the leap from school teacher to financial literacy advocate

    Call to Leap Founder Steve Chen joins Jill Malandrino on Nasdaq #TradeTalks​ for #FinancialLiteracyMonth​ to discuss making the leap from school teacher to financial literacy advocate.

    Apr 13, 2021

    The Motley Fool

    Founded in 1993 in Alexandria, VA., by brothers David and Tom Gardner, The Motley Fool is a multimedia financial-services company dedicated to building the world's greatest investment community. Reaching millions of people each month through its website, books, newspaper column, radio show, television appearances, and subscription newsletter services, The Motley Fool champions shareholder values and advocates tirelessly for the individual investor. The company's name was taken from Shakespeare, whose wise fools both instructed and amused, and could speak the truth to the king -- without getting their heads lopped off.

    Learn More