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Why the Earnings Surprise Streak Could Continue for Arch Coal (ARCH)


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Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering Arch Coal (ARCH), which belongs to the Zacks Mining - Miscellaneous industry.

This coal producer has seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 62.75%.

For the las t report ed quarter, Arch Coal came out with earnings of $6.33 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.02 per share, representing a surprise of 109.60%. For the previous quarter, the company was expected to pos t earnings of $1.95 per share and it actually produced earnings of $2.26 per share, delivering a surprise of 15.90%.

Price and EPS Surprise

Thanks in part to this history, there has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Arch Coal lately. In fact, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) for the stock is positive, which is a great indicator of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with its solid Zacks Rank.

Our research shows that stocks with the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time . In other words, if you have 10 stocks with this combination, the number of stocks that beat the consensus estimate could be as high as seven.

The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is related to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.

Arch Coal has an Earnings ESP of +8.19% at the moment, suggesting that analysts have grown bullish on its near-term earnings potential. When you combine this positive Earnings ESP with the stock's Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), it shows that another beat is possibly around the corner. The company's nex t earnings report is expected to be released on February 12, 2019.

When the Earnings ESP comes up negative, investors should note that this will reduce the predictive power of the metric. But, a negative value is not indicative of a stock's earnings miss.

Many companies end up beating the consensus EPS estimate, though this is not the only reason why their shares gain. Additionally, some stocks may remain stable even if they end up missing the consensus estimate.

Because of this, it's really important to check a company's Earnings ESP ahead of its quarterly release to increase the odds of success. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.


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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.





This article appears in: Investing , Earnings , Investing Ideas , Stocks
Referenced Symbols: ARCH




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