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U.S. Midterm Elections As Expected. Fed Rate Decision Thursday


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John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


U.S. Midterm Elections Roughly As Expected There are always some surprises in national elections, but the consensus forecasts by the pollsters were broadly correct. As widely expected, the Democrats took control of the House of Representatives and the Republicans strengthened their control of the Senate. It could take a while until precise numbers have been determined.

A split Congress and split government implies that the two parties will have to work together on anything they want to accomplish and the more partisan legislation that either side might want to enact will have to be set to the sidelines. That might be a good thing. President Trump’s tax cut plans presumably are headed nowhere. There appears to be support for some sort of an infrastructure program, but it might prove problematic to raise the funding for anything more than a scaled down plan. The day after the election has started the 2020 Presidential election campaign. Newly-elected members of the House will be looking to hold onto their seats and presumably will not be looking to make waves in their early days. Grandiose plans for endless investigations, impeachment, etc. might prove to be self-defeating.

Federal Reserve Decision Thursday The Fed meets eight times each year, and have gotten themselves in a pattern where they only can make policy decisions at every other meeting. Policy decisions are now only taken at the four meetings just before the quarter-ends which include a press conference. Starting in January 2019, every meeting will include a press conference afterwards and the other four meetings effectively will become “live” events once again. The meeting on Thursday will likely not include a policy decision, but could provide some hints about what will be coming in December. Markets have already virtually priced in a 25bp Fed Funds rate hike to 2.50% (top of target range) at the December meeting. If the market is off-track on that assumption, the Fed would likely signal that in their policy statement. I continue to feel the Fed will hike in December.

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 12 Nov 2018
AA CA/US Holiday
Tue 13 Nov 2018
AA 09:30 GB- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 14 Nov 2018
AA 09:30 GB- CPI
AA 09:30 EZ- GDP
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 15 Nov 2018
A 01:30 AU- Employment
AA 09:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 16 Nov 2018
AA 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 14:15 US- Ind Prod/Cap Util

Be sure to refer every trading day to the Global-View forex trading website to see the continuously UPDATED International Economic and Events Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual economic and central bank data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. Since 1997, Global-View.com has been featuring live discussions by active traders of current developments in the forex market in a convenient timeline format.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.



This article appears in: Investing , Currencies , Forex



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