Theresa May's High Stakes Brexit Poker Game

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Some could look at UK PM May’s persistence in pushing her withdrawal plan like banging her head against a stone wall, but there may be a method to her madness.

Theresa May’s Brexit Game Plan

It feels like a high stakes poker game with the EU’s refusal to amend the withdrawal agreement leaving parliament with some unenviable choices as the statutory  March 29 Brexit deadline nears.  Those favoring Brexit can either vote for the withdrawal agreement if it is presented for a third time or be subject to terms presented by the EU to approve an Article 50 extension if it is invoked by the UK.  The longer the extension the greater the risk that Brexit will never occur.

We gather the UK vote today is to extend the time to get a parliamentary agreement for Brexit to the official "no-deal" deadline of March 29. In the meantime, parliament will vote for a third time early next week on the twice defeated May Brexit deal with the EU. We understand her hope is to get support from the DUP and ERG based on the argument that "this is the best you are going to get". This will be an uphill battle but when faced with the alternative we will see whether the hardline Brexiteers blink.

How to Trade GBPUSD

In the meantime, GBPUSD has found support from the "no-deal" (worst case Brexit) being taken off the table. Trading has been volatile and should continue to be that way with sterling likely to find support or at least see a limited downside until the longer-term picture becomes clear. One way to navigate in these choppy waters is by using our Amazing Trader program, which makes order out of chaos, creating opportunities to trade.  

Will Brexiteers Blink?

In any case, we will be watching PM May’s attempt to walk back from the precipice and push through a withdrawal agreement that few seem to favor but could be the best they will get as the Brexit deadline looms. 

Jay Meisler and Jihn Bland

co-founders Global-View.com

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

This article appears in: Investing , Currencies , Forex , Global Macro Events

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