Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel , we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (Symbol: VTI), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $155.12 per unit.
With VTI trading at a recent price near $137.45 per unit, that means that analysts see 12.85% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of VTI's underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are (Symbol: AVYA), Mercury Systems Inc (Symbol: MRCY), and Moog Inc (Symbol: MOG.A). Although AVYA has traded at a recent price of $22.60/share, the average analyst target is 32.74% higher at $30.00/share. Similarly, MRCY has 23.29% upside from the recent share price of $45.42 if the average analyst target price of $56.00/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting MOG.A to reach a target price of $103.00/share, which is 21.19% above the recent price of $84.99. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of AVYA, MRCY, and MOG.A:
Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:
|Name ||Symbol ||Recent Price ||Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target ||% Upside to Target |
| Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF || VTI || $137.45 || $155.12 || 12.85% |
| ||AVYA ||$22.60 ||$30.00 ||32.74% |
|Mercury Systems Inc ||MRCY ||$45.42 ||$56.00 ||23.29% |
|Moog Inc ||MOG.A ||$84.99 ||$103.00 ||21.19% |
Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock's trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.
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