The Math Shows VTI Can Go To $155

Shutterstock photo

Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel , we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (Symbol: VTI), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $155.12 per unit.

With VTI trading at a recent price near $137.45 per unit, that means that analysts see 12.85% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of VTI's underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are (Symbol: AVYA), Mercury Systems Inc (Symbol: MRCY), and Moog Inc (Symbol: MOG.A). Although AVYA has traded at a recent price of $22.60/share, the average analyst target is 32.74% higher at $30.00/share. Similarly, MRCY has 23.29% upside from the recent share price of $45.42 if the average analyst target price of $56.00/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting MOG.A to reach a target price of $103.00/share, which is 21.19% above the recent price of $84.99. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of AVYA, MRCY, and MOG.A:

AVYA, MRCY, and MOG.A Relative Performance Chart

Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:

Name Symbol Recent Price Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target % Upside to Target
Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF VTI $137.45 $155.12 12.85%
AVYA $22.60 $30.00 32.74%
Mercury Systems Inc MRCY $45.42 $56.00 23.29%
Moog Inc MOG.A $84.99 $103.00 21.19%

Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock's trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.

10 ETFs With Most Upside To Analyst Targets »

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

This article appears in: Investing , ETFs
Referenced Symbols: VTI , AVYA , MRCY , MOG.A

More from BNK Invest


BNK Invest

BNK Invest

Market News, Investing

Research Brokers before you trade

Want to trade FX?