Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel , we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol USA ETF (Symbol: USMV), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $60.28 per unit.
With USMV trading at a recent price near $53.25 per unit, that means that analysts see 13.19% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of USMV's underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are T-Mobile US Inc (Symbol: TMUS), Universal Health Services, Inc. (Symbol: UHS), and Cisco Systems Inc (Symbol: CSCO). Although TMUS has traded at a recent price of $64.81/share, the average analyst target is 18.97% higher at $77.11/share. Similarly, UHS has 18.87% upside from the recent share price of $118.49 if the average analyst target price of $140.85/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting CSCO to reach a target price of $52.47/share, which is 18.71% above the recent price of $44.20. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of TMUS, UHS, and CSCO:
Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:
|Name ||Symbol ||Recent Price ||Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target ||% Upside to Target |
| iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol USA ETF || USMV || $53.25 || $60.28 || 13.19% |
|T-Mobile US Inc ||TMUS ||$64.81 ||$77.11 ||18.97% |
|Universal Health Services, Inc. ||UHS ||$118.49 ||$140.85 ||18.87% |
|Cisco Systems Inc ||CSCO ||$44.20 ||$52.47 ||18.71% |
Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock's trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.
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