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The Implied Analyst 12-Month Target For USMV


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Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel , we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol USA ETF (Symbol: USMV), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $60.28 per unit.

With USMV trading at a recent price near $53.25 per unit, that means that analysts see 13.19% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of USMV's underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are T-Mobile US Inc (Symbol: TMUS), Universal Health Services, Inc. (Symbol: UHS), and Cisco Systems Inc (Symbol: CSCO). Although TMUS has traded at a recent price of $64.81/share, the average analyst target is 18.97% higher at $77.11/share. Similarly, UHS has 18.87% upside from the recent share price of $118.49 if the average analyst target price of $140.85/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting CSCO to reach a target price of $52.47/share, which is 18.71% above the recent price of $44.20. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of TMUS, UHS, and CSCO:

TMUS, UHS, and CSCO Relative Performance Chart

Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:

Name Symbol Recent Price Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target % Upside to Target
iShares Edge MSCI Min Vol USA ETF USMV $53.25 $60.28 13.19%
T-Mobile US Inc TMUS $64.81 $77.11 18.97%
Universal Health Services, Inc. UHS $118.49 $140.85 18.87%
Cisco Systems Inc CSCO $44.20 $52.47 18.71%

Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock's trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.

10 ETFs With Most Upside To Analyst Targets »

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.





This article appears in: Investing , ETFs
Referenced Symbols: USMV , TMUS , UHS , CSCO



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