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Shorts See the Better Historical Performance Playing IBM off Earnings-Driven After-Hours Moves


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IBM ( IBM ) is due with its Q1 results in the extended-hours Tuesday, April 17, and analysts polled by Capital IQ are expecting a profit of $2.42 per share on sales of $18.8 billion.

IBM favors widening in its long-term session-to-session performance, crossing wider next-day percentage closing levels following after-hours earnings events in 30 of the last 55 quarters tracked in our MT Pro database.

Looking deeper into the performance data, the stock just favors the short side on both sides of the trade. The stock has posted an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 23 of the 55 quarters we've tracked, and in 12 of those quarters, 52% of the time, the stock has seen its after-hours gain reverse or narrow in next-day regular session trade. On the downside, IBM has recorded 32 earnings-driven declines in the 55 quarters we've tracked, and in 19 of those events, or 59% of the time, the decline has widened in the following day's regular session.

Here's the historical performance.

On Jan. 18, 2018, IBM declined 2.7% in after-hours action despite topping Q4 analyst estimates. The stock slumped lower the next day, closing the Jan. 19 regular session off 4%.

On Oct. 17, 2017, IBM advanced 4.9% in evening trade after beating Q3 Street expectations and maintaining its forward outlook. The stock ramped higher the next day, closing the Oct. 18 regular session up 8.8%.

On July 18, 2017, IBM declined 3.1% in after-hours trade after beating Q2 earnings estimates, missing on revenue, and setting its FY 2017 earnings outlook mostly above the Street view. The stock moved lower the next day, closing the July 19 regular session down 4.2%.

On April 18, 2017, IBM shed 4.8% in night trade after beating Q1 earnings estimates, missing on revenue and maintaining its full year earnings guidance. The stock moved slightly lower the next day, closing the April 19 regular session down 4.9%.

On Jan. 19, 2017, IBM declined 2.7% in evening trade despite topping Q4 Street estimates. The stock reversed course the following day, closing the Jan. 20 regular session up 2.2%.

On Oct. 17, 2016, IBM declined 3.3% in night trade despite beating Q3 earnings and revenue expectations. The stock narrowed its downside the next day, closing the Oct. 18 regular session off 2.6%.

On July 18, 2016, IBM edged up 0.2% in after-hours trade after topping Q2 expectations and reaffirming its guidance. The stock reversed course the next day, ending the July 19 regular session down 0.3%.

On April 18, 2016, IBM shed 2.7% in night trade despite beating Q1 estimates and maintaining its profit outlook. The stock moved lower the following day, ending the April 19 regular session with a 5.6% decline.

On Jan. 19, 2016, IBM declined 3.2% in after-hours action after beating Q4 earnings estimates and meeting on revenue. The stock added to its downside the next day, closing off 4.9%.

On Oct. 19, 2015, IBM dropped 4.8% in after-hours trade after reporting mixed Q3 results and cutting its FY 2015 earnings outlook. The stock moved lower the following day, closing the Oct. 20 regular session down 5.7%.

On July 20, 2015, IBM declined 4.6% in evening trade after posting Q2 revenue shy of expectations, beating on EPS, and also maintaining guidance. The stock was hit for steeper declines in the following regular session, closing down 5.8% on July 21.

On April 20, 2015, IBM edged up 0.4% in night trade after beating Q1 earnings expectations, coming in shy on revenue, and maintaining its full year earnings view. It reversed direction the next day, ending the April 21 regular session down 1.1%.

On Jan. 20, 2015, IBM dropped 1.9% in after-hours trade after beating Q4 EPS estimates, coming in shy on revenue, and setting its FY 2015 EPS view below the Street. The stock was hit for sharper declines the next day, closing the Jan. 21 regular session down 3.1%.

On Oct. 20, 2014, IBM declined 8.4% in pre-market trade after missing Q3 expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The stock narrowed its downside slightly in that that day's regular session, closing down 7.1%.

On July 17, 2014, IBM dipped 1.7% in after-hours trade despite topping Q2 Street estimates. The stock reversed its move the following day, closing the July 18 regular session up a slim 0.01%.

On April 16, 2014, IBM declined 4.1% in night trade after meeting Q1 earnings expectations and missing on revenue. The stock narrowed its declines slightly the next day, closing the April 17 regular session off 3.2%.

On Jan. 21, 2014, IBM shed 3.1% in after-hours trade after beating Q4 EPS estimates but missing on revenue. The stock added modestly to that downside the next day, closing the Jan. 22 regular session off 3.3%.

On Oct. 16, 2013, IBM declined 5.8% in night trade after missing Q3 revenue expectations. The stock moved lower the following day, ending the Oct. 17 regular session off 6.3%.

On July 17, 2013, IBM gained 2.3% in after-hours trade after beating Q2 estimates and raising its FY13 guidance above the Street view. The stock scaled back its gains the next day, closing the July 18 regular session up 1.8%.

On April 18, 2013, IBM slumped 3.9% in night trade after missing Q1 earnings expectations. The stock was hammered lower the next day, closing the April 19 regular session off 8.2%.

On Jan. 22, 2013, IBM gained 4.1% in after-hours trade after beating on Q4 and setting guidance above the consensus view. The stock moved higher the next day, closing the Jan. 23 regular session up 4.4%.

On Oct. 16, 2012, IBM declined 3.3% in night trade after beating on Q3 earnings, missing on revenue and reiterating its earnings view. The stock moved deeper south the next day, closing the Oct. 17 regular session down 4.9%.

On July 18, 2012, IBM advanced 2.6% in evening trade after posting mixed Q2 results. The stock firmed higher the next day, advancing 3.7% in the July 19 regular session.

On April 17, 2012, IBM declined 2.4% in after-hours action despite topping estimates and setting guidance mostly above the Street view. The stock added to its downside the next day, closing the April 18 regular session off 3.5%.

On Jan. 19, 2012, IBM gained 2.5% in after-hours trade after posting Q4 results in line with expectations and setting its outlook largely below the Street view. The stock firmed higher the next day, closing the Jan. 20 regular session up 4.4%.

On Oct. 17, 2011, declined 3.7% in night trade after beating Q3 earnings estimates, reporting in-line sales, and raising its full year earnings view. The stock headed deeper in the red the next day, closing the Oct. 18 regular session down 4.1%.

On July 18, 2011, IBM advanced 1.8% in after-hours trade after topping Q2 expectations and lifting its fiscal year guidance. The stock added to its upside the next day, closing the July 19 regular session up 5.6%.

On April 19, 2011, IBM declined 2.3% in after-hours trade despite posting better-than-expected Q1 results and raising its fiscal year EPS view above Street estimates. The stock cut its downside the next day, closing the April 20 regular session down 0.4%.

On Jan. 19, 2011, IBM gained 3.3% in after-hours action after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock closed the Jan. 20 regular session with the same 3.3% advance.

On Oct. 18, 2010, the stock fell 3.5% in after-hours trading after IBM beat with results and guided higher. Shares fell a slightly slimmer 3.3% the next day.

On July 19, 2010, IBM declined 4% in after-hours trade after beating EPS estimates and missing on revenue. The stock cut its downside the following day, closing the July 20 regular session off 2.5%.

On April 19, 2010, the stock fell 2.1% during extended-hours trading despite an earnings beat and raised guidance. Shares fell a slightly leaner 1.9% during the following regular session.

On Jan. 19, 2010, IBM declined 1.9% in after-hours trade despite topping expectations and setting guidance above the Street view. The stock headed deeper in the red the following day, closing the Jan. 20 regular session down 2.9%.

On Oct. 15, 2009, the stock fell 3.6% during evening trading after a beat and raised full-year guidance. The loss widened slightly, to 4.9%, the next day.

On July 16, 2009, the stock gained 1.5% after a Q2 beat. The gain expanded to 4.3% the next day.

On April 20, 2009, the stock fell 1.3% after an earnings beat, revenue miss and reaffirmed guidance. Shares rebounded to gain 1.8% the next day.

On Jan. 20, 2009, IBM advanced 4.2% in evening trade after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock went even higher the next day, rising 11.5% in the Jan. 21 regular session.

On Oct. 16, 2008, IBM advanced 2.3% in after-hours action after besting earnings expectations. The gain evaporated the next day as IBM closed the Oct. 17 regular session down 0.8%.

On July 17, 2008, IBM declined 0.5% in after-hours trade after topping Q2 expectations. The stock reversed course the next day, and IBM closed with a 2.6% gain on July 18.

On April 16, 2008, IBM gained 2.7% in after-hours trade after beating Q1 expectations. That upside was cut back in the April 17 regular session, with IBM ending the day up a slimmer 2.1%.

On Jan. 14, 2008, IBM pre-announced better-than-expected Q4 results in pre-market trade and the stock advanced 8% before the bell. It edged back from that upside in the following regular session, holding a 5.4% rise into the Jan. 14 closing bell.

IBM reported preliminary Q4 EPS of $2.80 per share, up from $2.26 per share in the year ago quarter. Revs were $28.9 bln, up 10% vs. Q4 last year. The FC mean was $2.60 per share on revs of $27.8 bln.

On Oct. 16, 2007, the stock fell 1.1% in evening action after IBM beat by a penny with Q3 EPS. The loss was a deeper 3.2% the next day.

On July 18, 2007, IBM rose 3.1% in night trade after beating Q2 estimates. Shares gained a little more the next day, closing the regular session up 4.3%.

On April 17, 2007, IBM slipped 0.8% in after-hours trade after the company met on earnings and beat on revenue. Sellers piled on for more declines in the next day's regular session, skinning the stock for a 2.4% decline.

On Jan. 18, 2007, the stock fell 5.5% in the after-hours session despite reporting ahead of the Street in Q4 and toping with FY sales. Shares fell by a slimmer 3.3% the next day.

On Oct. 17, 2006, IBM advanced 5.2% in after-hours trading after the company beat Q3 expectations. The gain was cut back in the Oct. 18 regular session, with the stock ending the day up a more modest 3.3%.

On July 18, 2006, IBM inched up 1.5% in night trade after topping Q2 expectations. The shares rose a bit further the next day, closing the regular session up 2.4%.

On April 18, 2006, IBM shares advanced 1.4% in evening trade after the company beat on EPS and posted in-line revenue numbers. That gain failed to hold through the next day's regular session as IBM closed April 19 down 1.7%.

On Jan. 17, 2006, IBM edged down 0.1% in evening trade after the company beat on EPS but missed on revenue. It bounced back from that slim decline in the Jan. 18 regular session, climbing 0.9% by the closing bell.

On Oct. 17, 2005, IBM advanced 2.3% in evening trade after beating on EPS and reporting revenue in-line with expectations. It ended the Oct. 18 regular session with a less vigorous upside move, rising 1%.

On July 18, 2005 IBM advanced 4.5% in night trade after the company beat Street estimates. It pared back that upside momentum on July 19, closing the regular session up a more modest 2.3%.

On April 14, 2005 IBM declined 3.9% in evening play after the company reported results up from year ago levels but came in shy on revenue. The stock lost a more aggressive 8.3% in the April 15 regular session.

On Jan. 18, 2005 IBM edged up 0.1% in night trade after beating expectations, but failed to hold those gains the following day, sliding 1.9% by the closing bell on Jan. 19.

Back on Oct. 18, 2004 IBM advanced 2.3% in after-hours trade after topping the then-current Street view. It charged higher in next-day trade, rising 4% between the bells on Oct. 19.

On July 15, 2004 IBM managed a modest 0.8% evening rise after beating expectations. It slimmed down its gains on July 16, adding a mere 0.3% by that day's close.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Copyright (C) 2016 MTNewswires.com. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.



This article appears in: Investing
Referenced Symbols: IBM


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