Looking at the underlying holdings of the ETFs in our coverage universe at ETF Channel , we have compared the trading price of each holding against the average analyst 12-month forward target price, and computed the weighted average implied analyst target price for the ETF itself. For the iShares Core S&P U.S. Growth ETF (Symbol: IUSG), we found that the implied analyst target price for the ETF based upon its underlying holdings is $65.36 per unit.
With IUSG trading at a recent price near $57.54 per unit, that means that analysts see 13.59% upside for this ETF looking through to the average analyst targets of the underlying holdings. Three of IUSG's underlying holdings with notable upside to their analyst target prices are Louisiana-Pacific Corp (Symbol: LPX), GEO Group Inc (Symbol: GEO), and Papa John's International, Inc. (Symbol: PZZA). Although LPX has traded at a recent price of $23.05/share, the average analyst target is 30.15% higher at $30.00/share. Similarly, GEO has 23.83% upside from the recent share price of $23.15 if the average analyst target price of $28.67/share is reached, and analysts on average are expecting PZZA to reach a target price of $57.83/share, which is 20.79% above the recent price of $47.88. Below is a twelve month price history chart comparing the stock performance of LPX, GEO, and PZZA:
Below is a summary table of the current analyst target prices discussed above:
|Name ||Symbol ||Recent Price ||Avg. Analyst 12-Mo. Target ||% Upside to Target |
| iShares Core S&P U.S. Growth ETF || IUSG || $57.54 || $65.36 || 13.59% |
|Louisiana-Pacific Corp ||LPX ||$23.05 ||$30.00 ||30.15% |
|GEO Group Inc ||GEO ||$23.15 ||$28.67 ||23.83% |
|Papa John's International, Inc. ||PZZA ||$47.88 ||$57.83 ||20.79% |
Are analysts justified in these targets, or overly optimistic about where these stocks will be trading 12 months from now? Do the analysts have a valid justification for their targets, or are they behind the curve on recent company and industry developments? A high price target relative to a stock's trading price can reflect optimism about the future, but can also be a precursor to target price downgrades if the targets were a relic of the past. These are questions that require further investor research.
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