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Its Hard To Find A Major Central Bank Whose Policy Is Not On Hold


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John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global- View.com

ECB President Draghi Sets Dovish Tone At latest Bank Meeting Draghi had a gloomy assessment for the Eurozone economy after the ECB meeting on March10, 2019. He generally highlighted the prospects for weak growth for the rest of the year and gave markets the impression that the central bank would not be raising interest rates before the end on 2019. The ECB Bank deposit rate, the rate the ECB pays banks for cash deposits at the central bank has held at -0.40% for a good while. This means that commercial banks have to pay the ECB to hold funds they are unable to lend. The hope has been that this deposit rate could move to a positive level sometime soon. Money markets currently are pricing in no change in this rate for the rest of the year. Many consider these money managers to be the “smart Money”. Latest pricing is for a 1BP decline in this rate by yearend. This is something we watch closely and will keep you abreast on in these articles. The value of these rates is that they tell you where the real money is being bought and sold. There is no better assessment of dealer sentiment than this

On Thursday The ECB's Villeroy (France) reiterated that General Council is determined to be as accommodative as needed. He stated that growth in the Eurozone is slowing down but there is no risk of recession. He alsosaid that French and Spanish resilience should help Euro-Area growth. He assured markets that the ECB will continue to assess the impact of negative rates.

Latest Fed Minutes Send Dovish Signal The latest Fed Minutes indicated that participants generally agreed that a patient approach to determining future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate remained appropriate. They also noted that participants emphasized noted that the “patient” policy should not be seen as limiting the Committee's options. They also said a majority of participants expected that the evolution of the economic outlook and risks to the outlook would likely warrant leaving the target range unchanged for the remainder of 2019. In the U.S., the “smart money” is pricing -17bp decline in money market rates before year.

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 15 Apr 2019
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
Tue 16 Apr 2019
AA 08:30 UK- Employment
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 17 Apr 2019
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 UK- CPI
AA 10:00- EZ- final HICP
AA 12:30- CA- CPI/Trade
A 12:30- US- Trade
A 16:00 EZ- EIA Crude
Thu 18 Apr 2019
AA 08:30 UK- Retail Sales
AA 12:30 CA- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Personal Income
Fri 19 Apr 2019
AA Various- Good Friday Holiday
A 12:30 US- House Starts/Permits

Be sure to refer every trading day to the Global-View forex trading website to see the continuously UPDATED International Economic and Events Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual economic and central bank data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. Since 1997, Global-View.com has been featuring live discussions by active traders of current developments in the forex market in a convenient timeline format.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.





This article appears in: Investing , Currencies , Forex




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