Quantcast

Here's Why United Parcel Service Lost 18.1% in 2018


What happened

Shares of United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) fell by 18.1% in 2018, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence . A combination of geopolitical concerns, new competition, and the company's ongoing capex spending upswing are outweighing excitement about the continued growth of e-commerce to keep the shares stuck in the doldrums.

UPS Chart

UPS data by YCharts .

So what

It was an uneven year for UPS, with shares up more than 10% early before crashing back down to earth after the company reported first-quarter earnings that showed pressure on margins. UPS is in the middle of a period of heavy spending as it tries to modernize its infrastructure to better compete for e-commerce business.

Long criticized for underspending on its network, UPS is spending $7 billion in 2018 on capex after laying out just $3 billion in 2016. That investment should pay off down the road but could eat into near-term results. The spending is necessary, but it comes at the same time Amazon.com is ramping up its internal logistics operations, which, over time, could sap billions in revenue from UPS and archrival FedEx .

A cargo jet with the UPS logo.

Shares of UPS were unable to get off the ground in 2018. Image source: United Parcel Service.

UPS is trying both to expand its e-commerce operation and to grow other businesses to make sure it is not overreliant on the consumer. In recent years, the company has invested in fast-growing niches including healthcare, life sciences, and business-to-business service that tend to value precision over cost and are therefore less price sensitive.

The final few months of the year were particularly harsh to UPS investors. Shares were down 15.4% in December alone due to growing worries about a U.S./China trade war and in reaction to FedEx cutting its 2019 guidance.

Now what

UPS's investments in its infrastructure are the right moves, but they may take a while to pay off. Similarly, it is possible that the trade war will simply reroute shipping patterns away from China and toward other emerging markets instead of deflating traffic, but again, it will take time for investors to know for sure. In the meantime, UPS is not cheap, trading at 15.7 times trailing earnings compared to FedEx's 9.2-times multiple.

UPS is a solid company, but for the time being, I see no reason to rush in and buy the stock.

10 stocks we like better than United Parcel Service
When investing geniuses David and Tom Gardner have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the newsletter they have run for over a decade, Motley Fool Stock Advisor , has quadrupled the market.*

David and Tom just revealed what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy right now... and United Parcel Service wasn't one of them! That's right -- they think these 10 stocks are even better buys.

Click here to learn about these picks!

*Stock Advisor returns as of November 14, 2018

John Mackey, CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Lou Whiteman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Amazon and FedEx. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.





This article appears in: Personal Finance , Stocks
Referenced Symbols: UPS



More from Motley Fool

Subscribe






Motley Fool
Contributor:

Motley Fool

Market News, Investing










Research Brokers before you trade

Want to trade FX?