John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com
Fed Chair Powell Signals Change In Policy Bias Fed Chair Powell has made several appearances recently. His comments after the December 20th rate hike had many wondering if he had misspoken when he said the Fed Quantitative Tightening (QT) was on autopilot. QT and rate rises are seen as two forms of simultaneous policy tightening. These words alarmed the markets at a time when many the economy saw the economy was slowing. Since then, Powell has taken every opportunity to announce to the markets that Fed policy is currently data-dependent and clearly not on auto-pilot. Pressure on the Fed has subsequently eased following a much stronger than expected December employment report at the end of last week. I was impressed by the latest employment data as well, but add that after following this report for multiple decades that the data series can be extremely volatile and that any report will need several months of consistent data to confirm any single outcome. Furthermore, end of year data can see some serious distortions.
Crunch Time For U.K. PM May And Brexit With the U.K. House OF Commons now back in session following the holiday season, its focus is squarely on the vote on PM May’s Brexit plan currently scheduled for the week of January 14. Most feel that her proposed plan will not make It through this vote. The EU has not been be willing to give much ground in these negotiations and many factions in the U.K. are uncomfortable with what is being proposed. Is looks as that the vote is going to come down to the wire next week. There is not a lot of clarity about what the alternatives will be if the plan is not approved by the Parliament. One possibility is that Article 50, which sets the rules for exit from the EU might have its deadline date extended for a couple more years. In the meantime, it is possible that PM May could be replaced, while someone else tries to close a deal with the EU. Hang onto your seats!
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Mon 14 Jan 2019
A 13:30 US- PPI
Tue 15 Jan 2019
No Major data
Wed 16 Jan 2019
AA 09:30 GB- CPI
AA 13:30 US- Retail Sales
A 16:00 US- EIA Crude
Thu 17 Jan 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Final HICP
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 13:30 US- House Permits/Starts
Fri 18 Jan 2019
A 13:30 CA- CPI
A 14:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 15:00 US- Prelim University Of Mich Survey
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