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Delphi Automotive PLC (DLPH) Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript


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Delphi Automotive PLC (NYSE: DLPH)
Q3 2018 Earnings Conference Call
Nov. 07, 2018 , 8:30 a.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good morning, my name is Kristie, and I'll be your conference facilitator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Delphi Technologies Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. During the opening remarks, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Following the opening remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded and simultaneously webcast.

I would now like to turn the call over to Sherief Bakr, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sherief, please go ahead.

Sherief Bakr -- Vice President of Investor Relations

Thank you, Kristie, and good morning and good afternoon to everyone. Welcome to Delphi Technologies third quarter 2018 earnings call.

With me today in London is our Interim Chief Executive Officer, Hari Nair; our Chief Financial Officer, Vivid Sehgal; as well as our Chief Technology Officer, Mary Gustanski.

This call will include a discussion of our third quarter financial results as disclosed in today's press release, our outlook for 2018, as well as a preliminary outlook for 2019. In order to follow along with today's presentation, you can find an accompanying set of slides on our Investor Relations website at ir.delphi.com.

Please note that our discussion includes references to non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to their corresponding GAAP measures in the tables within our press release.

Now before we begin, I'd like to remind you that certain statements made on this call may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can vary materially from actual results and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including those contained in the company's Form 10-K and Form 10-Q, as well as other filings with the SEC. I would encourage all of you to review these risk factors listed in these documents.

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to Hari Nair.

Hari N. Nair -- Interim Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Sherief. Good morning, and good afternoon, to everyone. Thank you for joining us for today's call.

Before commenting on our Q3 performance, I wanted to briefly share some initial high level observations since my appointment as Interim CEO. Delphi Technologies is a great long-term growth opportunity, and I see exceptional prospects to continue to grow this business as we strengthen our leadership position in our key technologies. We have strong growth drivers, driven by regulatory and consumer demand, and an industry-leading portfolio of products and services for both our OEM and aftermarket customers. However, we need to sharpen our focus on operational excellence and prioritize our investments in key technologies to drive long-term profitable growth.

I'm proud of the response of the Delphi Technologies teams since I joined, the relentless focus we have on serving our customers, and delivering long-term value to our shareholders. My immediate priorities have been focused on two main areas, ensuring Delphi Technologies is well positioned to manage the shorter term headwinds impacting our industry, and accelerating the initiatives we have in place to improve our longer-term profitability and cash flow.

David will talk in more detail about our Q3 performance and our preliminary view on 2019, but slide two, gives you some key highlights of the third quarter. Continuing the trend we saw in the first half of the year, our bookings performance was a highlight of the quarter and gives us confidence in our future. $3.8 billion of bookings in Q3, reflects the strong demand we continue to see in key areas of our portfolio such as Power Electronics, GDi and Commercial Vehicle Systems. I'll come back to our bookings momentum and the investments we are making to drive long-term profitable growth in a few moments.

Revenue of $1.2 billion in the quarter was down by slightly less than 1% year-on-year and below our expectations coming into the quarter. Overall production growth was approximately 500 basis points lower than anticipated in third quarter as growth in all regions, and especially China moderated significantly. Offsetting this was another quarter of strong growth in key areas of the portfolio. Power Electronics, which grew by approximately 35% and Commercial Vehicle systems, which grew by approximately 20%. Our revenues in China declined by 12% in the third quarter, primarily due to lower GDi revenues to local OEM customers as well as the overall market decline.

Adjusted operating income of $108 million or 9.3% margin was impacted by the weaker revenue growth as well as the ongoing transitions in our portfolio. For example, from higher margin light-duty diesel revenues toward more advanced but currently lower margin Power Electronics and GDi. This was partially offset by another quarter of planned year-on-year margin improvement in our aftermarket business.

Operationally, we are on track to come off the Transition Service agreements with Aptiv in a timely and cost effective manner. However, we need to enhance our focus on our own operational excellence. And finally, we generated $54 million of operating cash flow in Q3 impacted by both lower earnings as well as unfavorable working capital dynamics.

Now turning to slide three, we continue to operate in a dynamic environment where we are seeing stronger regulatory driven and consumer demand for more efficient propulsion solutions for both passenger cars and commercial vehicles. These secular growth trends have accelerated over the last year, resulting in higher than expected demand for our GDi and Power Electronics offerings and we are continuing to invest significantly in both engineering and manufacturing capacity to support our customers' growing needs.

At the same time, as you can see at the bottom of slide three, we have seen a more challenging macro and industry backdrop over the course of 2018, which has also added some uncertainty as we look ahead into next year.

In terms of global production, we see a deterioration in growth in Q3 and we expect continued weakness in Q4, primarily related to market dynamics in China.

Looking ahead into 2019, we now assume global production to be approximately flat year-on-year. In Europe, we have the impact from WLTP as well as the accelerated transition from diesel to GDi and electrified powertrains. And finally, we have changes in the global trade and tariff framework which we have incorporated into our outlook.

One of the strengths of our business continues to be that we have balance in our portfolio, driven by our regional and customer mix, a highly localized footprint and our aftermarket business. This balance mitigates our exposure to any one single market driver. Building on our strong momentum in the marketplace over the past couple of years, our bookings performance in Q3 was again a highlight and reflects our customers continued recognition of the technologies and value we provide.

While the nature of quarterly bookings are typically uneven, $3.8 billion of lifetime revenue booked in Q3 was an outstanding result, and on a year-to-date basis $9 billion of bookings is well ahead of the $7.1 billion achieved in the whole of 2017, which in itself was a record for Delphi Technologies.

Our win rates from both conquest and incumbent business continue to be higher year-on-year, which is a reflection of the value our customers place on our portfolio of differentiated technologies as well as our disciplined commercial strategy. As you know, we have been focused on having a balance in our go-to-market strategy across portfolio, customers and regions.

Q3 saw a continuation of this trend with major wins in both our internal combustion engine and electrification technologies balanced across our three major regions. Let's look at some of our key wins in this quarter. For the internal combustion engine technologies segment, which made up approximately 60% of our Q3 bookings. There were a number of truly outstanding wins. We booked one of our largest ever GDi programs with a major European OEM for our industry-leading 350 bar system. In addition, we secured our largest GDi booking to date in North America with a major OEM.

From an electronics and electrification perspective, our differentiated technologies, including systems and software expertise continue to help us win in the marketplace. In Q3, we secured multiple power electronics bookings for our combined inverter and DC to DC converter. On a year-to-date basis, we have secured almost $2.5 billion of Power Electronics bookings and we continue to see significant opportunities in the global marketplace.

The investments we are making are consistent with our accelerated bookings momentum, ensuring they are fully aligned with the most attractive long-term growth and incremental content opportunities ahead of us.

Turning to slide five, as Vivid will discuss, we remain highly confident in our ability to deliver a significant acceleration in our growth as we look out beyond 2019, particularly as we start to convert our bookings momentum over the last couple of years to revenue momentum, and as the revenue headwinds from light-duty diesel start to dissipate. From an investment perspective, we will continue to prioritize on three key long-term growth technologies, Power Electronics, GDi and Commercial Vehicle systems. And despite the shorter term softness in our growth, our strategic priority remains on investing to ensure we execute on our bookings momentum and capture the long-term growth ahead of us.

While these incremental investments are expected to weigh on our 2019 financial performance, we believe this is the right approach to drive the acceleration in growth, the lower margin expansion and generate the strong free cash flow that we see over the longer term.

Before I turn the call over to Vivid, I wanted to reiterate my focus on improving our execution as we navigate through a softer and a more uncertain market environment, which we see moderating as we look through to 2020. And as I mentioned at the start of my remarks, I am very excited about our technology driven growth opportunities and ensuring we execute with discipline to deliver long-term value creation to our shareholders. Vivid?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Hari. Good morning and good afternoon to everyone on the call. My remarks will focus on three key areas, our Q3 performance and outlook for 2018, a preliminary view of 2019, and the drivers behind the inflection point we see in growth, margin and cash flow beyond next year.

Starting with a high level recap of our Q3 financials, which you can see on slide seven, before I get into the discussion of our year-on-year performance in Q3, and similar to the last few earnings calls, you will see that we have presented the prior year's results on both a pro forma and reported basis. The difference $20 million of revenue and $14 million of operating income reflects the pro forma adjustments and gives you the right starting point to compare our year-on-year growth in Q3. Revenue of $1.2 billion in the quarter declined by slightly less than 1% year-on-year versus an overall market decline of approximately 2%. Driving the revenue performance in the quarter was strong growth in Power Electronics and Commercial Vehicle, which was offset by lower sales in China and to a lesser extent by impacts related to passenger car diesel and WLTP in Europe.

Adjusted operating income of $108 million or 9.3% margin declined by 190 basis points year-on-year primarily due to the impact of unfavorable mix as well as incremental engineering spend. In addition, operating income was impacted by FX headwinds and high commodity and tariff-related costs. This was partially offset by cost control initiatives including lower than planned spin-related costs.

Operating cash flow of $54 million was impacted by both lower earnings as well as working capital outflows given some of the cost of dynamics, particularly in China. Our operating cash flow performance remains a key area of focus for us, and we expect to see an improvement in operating cash flow in Q4.

Turning to slide eight, which provides more detail on our revenue progression in the quarter. Looking at our Q3 revenue growth in more detail, as Hari mentioned, we continue to see strong growth in two key areas of the portfolio. Power Electronics revenues increased by approximately 35% in Q3 versus prior year, and Commercial Vehicle revenues increased by approximately 20%. GDi revenues declined by approximately 15% in the quarter, primarily related to lower revenue in China, the impacts of WLTP and a higher year-on-year comparison from the prior year quarter, when GDi revenues grew by approximately 60%. We expect to see an improved revenue performance from the GDi business in the fourth quarter, supported by a significant program launch with a leading global OEM.

From a regional perspective, we outgrew the market in all regions with the exception of China. Revenue in Europe increased by 5% as growth in Commercial Vehicle and GDi was offset by the ongoing decline in passenger car diesel revenues. North America revenue growth of 3% was primarily driven by new program launches, as well as higher sales to commercial vehicle customers. Finally, our sales in China declined by 12%, driven by the combination of market softness, as well as our own customer mix.

As I commented last quarter, our current revenue mix in China is split fairly evenly between global and local OEM customers. Within the local OEM customer mix, our revenues are heavily weighted toward the smaller OEMs, many of whom have seen significant and accelerated reductions in their market share over the last couple of quarters.

Just to put some numbers around this, we saw our local customers reduce their vehicle production by approximately 10% in the first half of the year. This decline accelerated in the third quarter to almost 30% and we expect similar declines in Q4. Offsetting this, we have new program launches in China in the fourth quarter. And on an overall basis, we expect our China revenues to be down approximately 20% in Q4.

Slide nine walks through our operating income growth for Q3. Adjusted operating income was $108 million, down from $133 million in the prior year quarter. This was primarily driven by unfavorable mix, foreign exchange headwinds and to a lesser extent higher commodity and tariff related costs. In addition, we continue to invest to support our stronger than expected bookings momentum with engineering spend as a percentage of sales, up by approximately 40 basis points year-on-year.

Turning to our segment performance on the next slide; on a year-on-year basis, Powertrain Systems adjusted revenue declined by 1.9% in the quarter. A strong growth in power electronics and commercial vehicle was offset by lower revenues in passenger car diesel, the impact of WLTP and softness in GDi as I mentioned before. Adjusted operating margin of 9% was down 220 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to the unfavorable mix and incremental engineering spend to support long-term growth. In addition, margin was impacted by higher commodity and tariff-related costs and FX headwinds, which was partially offset by ongoing improvements in operational performance.

Turning to our aftermarket segment on slide 11, our strategy to expand the margin of our aftermarket segment remains on track. In line with this, we are focused on increasing our growth in the independent aftermarket channel as well as prioritizing higher margin products. I am pleased with the progress we have made in 2018.

Revenue of $217 million declined by less than 1% as higher sales to independent aftermarket customers was more than offset by lower sales through the OES channel. Adjusted operating margin expanded by 70 basis points year-on-year primarily by our commercial strategy and operational performance. In addition, the aftermarket segment has continued to deliver improved operating cash flow through the combination of higher earnings and a focus on improving working capital. For 2018, we are confident on delivering full year margin improvements compared to 2017.

Now, let's move forward to our full-year outlook for 2018. Slide 12, outlines our outlook for the year. At a high level, this outlook is consistent with the update we provided at the start of October with additional relevant metrics. Starting with revenue, for the full year, we expect revenue to be between $4.85 billion and $4.9 billion or at 0% to 0.5% adjusted growth compared to 2017. For the fourth quarter, we currently expect vehicle production to be down by approximately 1%, primarily driven by weakness in China where we expect production to be down by a high single-digit percent in Q4.

We continue to expect strong growth in 2018 in Power Electronics and Commercial Vehicle systems. For Power Electronics, we expect revenue growth to be approximately 50% in 2018. Full year adjusted operating margin is expected to be in the 11.3% to 11.5% range, and for adjusted EPS, our outlook calls for earnings per share in the range of $4.20 to $4.30. And operating cash flow is expected to be in the range of $370 million to $400 million for the year.

Turning to slide 13, which provides a preliminary high level view on our 2019 expectations and some of the key drivers. We plan to provide more specific details on our Q4 earnings call in February. Directionally, we had assumed that the trends impacting our second half 2018 financials will continue through 2019. More specifically, certain transitional headwinds such as passenger car diesel and our customer mix in China are expected to further way on our financial performance next year.

Starting with revenue where we expect adjusted revenue growth to be approximately 1% to 2%. This assumes global production to be approximately flat.

In terms of our own revenue dynamics, there are three key trends that I have previously spoken about, which we expect to accelerate in 2019. First on China, where we expect to see the impact of continued share loss of our local OEM customers in a weaker market environment. Second, passenger car diesel, this revenue headwind, primarily in Europe, is expected to have close to a 300 basis point impact on top line growth in 2019 versus an expected 200 basis point impact in 2018. And third, key technologies, our expectations of a stronger growth in Power Electronics and GDi in 2019 driven by program launches in Europe and China.

I plan to provide more details on our Q4 earnings call, but from a medium term perspective, we expect the transitional impact of the first two dynamics to moderate as we head into 2020 and beyond, with the more structural tailwinds of key growth technologies, having a more significant impact on our overall revenue trajectory.

Turning to profitability, where our preliminary outlook is for adjusted operating margin to be approximately 9% to 10%. In the middle of slide 13, outlines a number of the drivers behind this range. Looking at some of the most impactful. First, from a mix perspective, we see an acceleration in the decline of higher than average margin passenger car diesel revenues in 2019 with an acceleration in growth -- with an acceleration of growth in Power Electronics and GDi, both of which are yet to reach breakeven profitability.

Second, the absence of foreign exchange tailwinds benefiting first half of 2018 results, which equates to approximately 50 basis points of margin on a full year basis.

Third, given the better than expected bookings momentum we have seen over the last several quarters, as well as the pursuits we are actively engaged in, we plan to increase our engineering spend in 2019 in key technologies to drive the acceleration of growth that we see ahead of us. For both Power Electronics and GDi, these incremental investments will allow us to further scale our operations in order to drive incremental revenue and accelerate margin expansion.

We remain laser focused on cost control, especially in a lower growth environment, and our priority remains on finding sources of savings to fund these investments. For example, by reallocating our engineering and CapEx investments for more mature technologies and continuing to establish lower cost stand-alone functions as we exit our transition service agreements.

We also target further margin expansion in our aftermarket segment in 2019 as part of our ongoing focus on more profitable channels and products. In addition to increasing our engineering spend for future growth, we also expect to increase CapEx in 2019. And due to stronger near-term demand in GDi and Power Electronics, we believe that increasing our CapEx to around 7% of sales in 2019 is a more appropriate level to meet this demand and ultimately drive incremental long-term growth.

Finally, on cash flow, while we expect to have lower year-on-year one-time separation costs in 2019, our preliminary view is for free cash flow to be around breakeven, given the incremental growth in CapEx as well as reviewing the future pension provision to our UK workforce. On a longer-term basis, we remain confident in the free cash flow generation capabilities of our business, especially as earnings growth accelerates and we return to more normalized levels of CapEx and restructuring.

Turning to slide 14, as I mentioned on the previous slide, we have assumed that the trends impacting our second half 2018 financials will continue through 2019. On slide 14, you can see how this has reflected in our adjusted operating margin outlook.

Starting on the left, there is the 12.5% of adjusted operating margin we delivered in the first half of 2018. Moving to the dotted areas in the middle, you can see our implied margin outlook range for the second half of 2018, which is between 10.3% and 10.5%. Considering market dynamics mix and foreign exchange rates, we believe that this is a better starting point from which to assess our 2019 margin profile. While we are still in the process of refining our 2019 outlook, the right hand side of the slide lays out the dynamics that we expect to impact our margin performance relative to the second half of 2018. The approximately 9% to 10% margin in 2019 assumes that there are incremental headwinds, primarily related to the unfavorable mix and higher engineering spend, I referenced earlier, as well as the high depreciation given the elevated CapEx this year.

Looking beyond 2019, slide 15, provides our preliminary longer-term outlook. As I mentioned at the start of my remarks, we see an inflection point in our financials as we move through 2019. We plan to provide further details on our Q4 call, but there are four key drivers behind the acceleration we see in 2020 and beyond. First, our strong bookings momentum in key technologies starts to translate into stronger revenue growth. Second, a moderation of the transitional headwinds from passenger car diesel and a more balanced global OEM customer mix in China. Third, we realize operating leverage as Power Electronics and GDi ramped to scale. And fourth, we normalize our levels of CapEx and restructuring.

At a high level, we expect this to result in an acceleration in our adjusted revenue growth to meet the high single-digit levels, operating margin expansion, coupled with significantly improved cash flow. So in closing, and before we take your questions, while we are operating in a dynamic and more challenging environment, our priority remains on the long-term value creation opportunity ahead of us. In the shorter term, my focus will remain on cost control and operating cash generation, while continuing to invest to support our tremendous bookings momentum and market opportunity.

With that, I'll turn the call back to the operator for your questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instruction) Our first question is from Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Joseph Spak -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I guess the first one I have is, I just want to, I guess, better understand some of the definitional stuff you're showing here, because at the end of 2017, it says the lifetime's bookings were $7.1 billion. You recorded year-to-date about $3.7 billion in revenue, and then for tracking, I think you reported about $9 billion of wins this year, which would suggest the lifetime value should be closer to $12 billion. So, have you sort of taken down some of the volume assumptions for some of those prior wins or is something wrong with my math there?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

It's Vivid here. The bookings themselves are basically not -- I mean these are bookings that range anywhere from two years right through till seven years of terms of lifetime bookings. So GDi bookings momentum that we take this year, the revenue starts really generating in a couple of years time, whereas more a commercial vehicle type of booking may take slightly longer to do that. So our bookings definitely in terms of customer wins, both on a conquest and an incumbent basis, but you know the bookings momentum that we have this year, we intend to see those being translated into revenue in the sort of 2020 time frame and beyond. So, no, I don't think your maths is in any way suspect on that.

Joseph Spak -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Sure. But just to be clear, I mean the $9 billion of lifetime, I mean that encapsulates everything regardless whether it's GDi or commercial vehicle, anything you think you're going to recognize over the coming years. So it does seem like you've taken a big whack to some of the prior volume associated with programs you previously won, is that fair?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

No. No, I think if you look at our bookings right now, I mean, this, in terms of prior bookings that we took, a lot of the booking revenues that we have at this stage where booking wins that were taken at least three to four years ago that are translating into revenues now on average. So that momentum that you're going to see and what gives us confidence of going forward in terms of the bookings momentum, the $7 billion of bookings in 2017 and $9 billion of bookings year-to-date in this period. And if you look at the momentum and what gives us real comfort right now in Q3 is that these bookings are actually in advanced technologies.

So in Q3 for example, 60% of the bookings are in the GDi advanced gasoline systems, whereas in the Power Electronics it's 40%. And for year-to-date it's about 50%-50% in terms of split. So this is giving us the confidence as we go forward that the revenue inflections that we're seeing in 2020 and 2021 will come through, because that booking momentum is growing. And we take the necessary haircuts and risks in terms of our bookings momentum to ensure that they reflect our capacity as well as bringing it down in terms of some of the macroeconomics that we're seeing right now. So, we intend to see these bookings momentum in the future and we're confident they are going to come through.

Joseph Spak -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Okay. And then maybe for Hari, you might be coming from the Board uniquely and qualified to answer this. But if you go back in time, there were -- the reports back when Delphi was still part of Delphi Automotive that some combination of this business might make sense with some other players. Given your view of where the business is right now, does it make sense to entertain strategic alternatives?

Hari N. Nair -- Interim Chief Executive Officer

Well, it's good question, but I mean, clearly, I can't speculate on any -- any M&A type opportunities. Our focus is really as we've just gone through, Vivid and I used to drive our technology driven growth, invest in all these new exciting products that we have, support the new book of business and really drive on to -- through the industry transitional headwinds that we're facing right now. So, that's what we're focused on.

Joseph Spak -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from David Tamberrino with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

David Tamberrino -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Great. Yes, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe the first one, as I was looking at the free cash flow slide, I thought it was interesting. You called out the UK pension review. I mean, how much could that be from a potential drag for next year's free cash flow and what exactly does that entail?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure. I mean obviously, we recognize the scale of the current pension deficit that we have in terms of our balance sheet as we go forward, and it's always been our aim to try and mitigate this increasing risk going forward. So we're doing that right now, and I think it's very appropriate that we do tackle this issue.

We are in consultation right now. And until this is complete, I'm not going to be able to provide full details which I will be able to provide much more clarity in Q4. However, what I will say is that our free cash flow, preliminary guidance that we have given does contemplate incremental contributions in 2019, and they are actually captured within that. So, I'm not -- I cannot provide further color at this stage because of the consultation that is going on. I will provide 2019 further details on the Q4 call. But just to reiterate, we have contemplated pension contributions in our 2019 free cash flow preliminary estimates.

David Tamberrino -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Okay. And you can't tell us today what that underfunded level is?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

I can tell you what the underfunded level is because that is actually in our 10-Q and 10-K. Yes, I mean the underfunded is around about $400 million to $500 million in relation to the pension deficit. That does not indicate anywhere near the level of cash flow that is required in terms of closing that gap, not by any means. That is the US GAAP version of the pension deficit. Our requirement right now is to ensure that the cash contributions we put in there, ensure that we closed down the future accrual pension scheme in the UK and our current free cash flow assumes that the cash contributions are covered within that for 2019.

David Tamberrino -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Okay, thank you. That's very helpful. And another one from me, as I think about laying out the preliminary 2019 outlook, I think we all understand the headwinds that -- we have an understanding of what some of the headwinds you're facing are. But then you said 2020 beyond, looking at mid-single digit to high single-digit type of revenue growth, with the inflection that you're seeing, what type of incremental margins, do you think you should be achieving on that business after you get through, call it 2019 and another transition year and go beyond 2020?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure. I mean, certainly, in terms of the sort of revenue trajectory, you're right. I mean, we are looking sort of in the medium term. We are confident in relation to the first answer that I gave that you know the lifetime bookings that we've booked in the past will certainly come through in terms of revenue at pace in 2020. We also see obviously the impact of light-duty diesel that we see as a sort of large element of the 2019 story dissipating. And some of the transitional headwinds that we see in China in terms of our revenue as well, in terms of the local OEM customer mix, also beginning to dissipate.

I think what we can see, and again, I will provide further details on margin expansion opportunities, but we do see a return to margin growth in 2020, and I think that comes from a number of areas. I think that number one comes from Power Electronics and GDi are above growth rate expectations that we originally had. And as we ramped to scale, we will get operating leverage opportunities there.

We are focusing additionally on the cost control of this business, and I repeat that Hari and myself are looking very, very quickly at opportunities to ensure that we rightsize this business even further given some of the softness we've seen. And, of course, our other story right now is the aftermarket continues to have a very strong margin trajectory, which was always part of our plan. So what we see right now is 2019 is definitely inflection point for us, with 2020 driving operating margin expansion, and I will provide more details on that in the Q4 call.

David Tamberrino -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Okay, understood. Maybe my last one, just following up there. As we think about GDi and Power Electronics getting to scale, what's the annual run rate of revenues today? What do you need to get to be at breakeven? And then beyond that, if you can -- do you care to communicate any incremental margins on those two businesses as they get past that scale level?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure. I mean, where we stand at the moment is that, I think both in Power Electronics and GDi, we see a bright future. If you look at the momentum, and also by revenue first, if you look at the level of bookings and the momentum that we have in terms of lifetime bookings, a large or almost all of the growth is in advanced technologies, which include GDi and Power Electronics. So we do see definitely a confidence in terms of our revenue projections in relation to both GDi and Power Electronics going forward.

In terms of the margins, I've said previously before that we are roundabout 12 months to 18 months behind our original sort of spin announcement in terms of the margins on GDi. And that's largely driven by the excess volumes that have been driven through particularly in Europe at this stage. So, I would say right now, without going into details that I will provide in Q4, we see a pathway back to sort of breakeven GDi margins, probably in the 12-month to 18-month timeframe is when we start getting back to more normalized breakeven levels compared to where we are today.

We've made great progress in the second half of 2018. And in the second half, we are significantly bettering operating margins in GDi particularly, than we were in the first half, and that gives us real confidence that we're able to drive that back in a 12-month to 18-month period is when we believe that will start happening.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Brian Johnson with Barclays. Your line is open.

Brian Johnson -- Barclays -- Analyst

I just want to follow up on that, and just try to get my head around, our heads around GDi versus diesel. My understanding when we talked in the spring is that the diesel injectors and the gas injectors are coming out of the same factories, the capital equipment is similar. So what is driving the lower margin at GDi? Maybe, if you could separate the incremental, decremental margin on gas versus diesel from the issues of overhead absorption and just pricing. I'm wondering with Bosch having outsized market share in diesel, is there just a more favorable pricing level in diesel that you don't get on a more fragmented gas market?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure. Hey, Brian. Vivid here. So look, we've always stated that GDi and Power Electronics operating income margins will be lower and will ramp up with scale. We've always sort of defined that and that is exactly what is happening now. It's just happens to be 12 months to 18 months longer than we originally expected.

The key element is while we are in the similar factories, the capital requirements of both are very different. GDi with the volumes that we have and the launches we have, we are constantly putting new CapEx in. If you look at the incremental CapEx we're putting into the business right now that is predominantly being driven by GDi launch wins that we've had in -- that we had this year and the previous year, and we intend to continue to build CapEx in. So, in terms of what is driving this, it is on -- we've always -- we've always said that GDi margins will ramp the scale and that's what's going on.

In terms of how that's working, this is obviously as we put CapEx in, in relation to actually volumes, the levels of scrap, the level of efficiency that we get through the manufacturing process, improves over time, and that's what's going on. We also have levels of engineering that is higher right now than we have with diesel. Well, obviously we haven't booked any further programs since 2014. So from our perspective, on a GDi basis, is that we are making the inroads. It's in line with what we said, but we're about 12 months to 18 months behind schedule right now.

So I'd be -- we understand that where we are with this right now, when we're putting into place clear strategies, and Hari is on board to support that as well, in terms of where we think GDi will go. And I will provide more details on the GDi ramp in the Q4 call, to provide more clarity over the longer term GDi trajectory.

Brian Johnson -- Barclays -- Analyst

Okay. Second question, and then I have a third for Hari. When you look at your exposure to China with smaller local OEMs, so indeed lost share in this downturn. If there is meaningful stimulus, and if it is focused on the sub 1.6 liter engine size and skewed in a way that reboot sales in lower-tier cities, would this headwind turn into a tailwind or are there more structural issues with your customer base there in terms of ability to hold market share in China?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

In terms of China, there is obviously two impacts that have impacted us in the second half of 2018. The first one is definitely just the weaker market that we've seen and we've called for example in Q4 to a high single-digit decline in the market at the back end of this one. We currently do not assume any type of stimulus in our numbers. So if an economic stimulus was to occur and was to obviously be targeted toward the local OEs or those with the smaller engine sizes that certainly would be good news for us. That would certainly be an opportunity -- a tailwind for us, potentially in 2019 because that's not currently assumed.

Brian Johnson -- Barclays -- Analyst

Okay. And then a question for Hari, and good to be chat -- talking to you again. Can you describe a little bit what happened with the outgoing CEO pushed, shoved the opportunity he saw? Kind of, second, your biggest positive and your biggest negative surprise now that you're inside as opposed to sitting on the Board? And three, how the CEO search is going and whether you consider yourself in the running or are you really looking for someone else?

Hari N. Nair -- Interim Chief Executive Officer

So, let me start with one, I guess say easy to answer that one. I mean, just as it was announced, the former CEO chose to resign. And as you've probably tracked through the press, he is now in another position in the London- area. So really that's all there is to say about that.

In terms of what I found as I've come into this role at Delphi Technologies, I'll start with the first point that I originally saw when I joined the Board a little over a year ago, which is a great portfolio of technologies and products that can really drive -- help drive this industry in all the growth segments that we're seeing going forward. So GDi and Power Electronics being the highlights and then Commercial Vehicle systems where we have good positions, but I see great opportunities to grow there as well from where we are today.

So if you take that backdrop and you think about operating leverage opportunities as the top line grows as Vivid has described in some detail, I see some tremendous opportunities in terms of operational excellence to our plants, our engineering, our launch activities toward driving margin improvement and certainly cash flow. So as I've gotten into some of the details here, I'm even more excited than when I was just aware of the product portfolio that I saw earlier.

In terms of the CEO search, all I can say is as soon as the change was announced, the Board formed a search committee and a process is well under way. And as soon as the CEO is selected, there will be an announcement. And I'm sure the process is considering, yes, all their options.

Brian Johnson -- Barclays -- Analyst

And are you on that subcommittee or you're just (multiple speakers)?

Hari N. Nair -- Interim Chief Executive Officer

I'm not on that subcommittee. No.

Brian Johnson -- Barclays -- Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Hari N. Nair -- Interim Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question is from Colin Langan with UBS. Your line is open.

Colin Langan -- UBS -- Analyst

Great. Thanks for taking my question. On the Investor Day before this, then I think the target was 14% by 2022. We're significantly off that now. I mean is that structurally possible at this point? I mean, is it just delayed? How should we think about that or is it just there is a structural issue that we really can't get back there?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

I think, I'm going to sort of give medium term operating income guidance and clarity on the Q4 call. I think the way to think about it right now is the structure of the business as we look at is the bookings momentum and the opportunities that we have in Power Electronics and GDi, in terms of the momentum that we've seen in the pursuits that we've won is far stronger than we expected back about a year ago. $9 billion of bookings this year driven in key technologies is a very different landscape to the one that we talked about at least a year ago.

And I think what's important to understand is that what we are doing as a company right now is actively investing behind that. And that active investment is including in terms of very, very controlled but effective engineering spend as well as the CapEx that we're putting behind it. So, I think, the company where we stand, what I think is exciting about this company is our growth opportunities in the advanced technologies is even stronger in terms of the bookings momentum than we had before.

So I will be providing operating income clarity in terms of going forward, but I think the sort of stage that we're setting ourselves for the longer term is a different stage to the one we are a year ago. And I think the advanced technologies are ahead of where we expected them to be in terms of the bookings momentum.

Colin Langan -- UBS -- Analyst

I mean did you think those, you know our Power Electronics and GDi, are they structurally going to be the same margins as the rest of the business or are there reasons why they might be lower?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

So, overall, I mean our trajectory that we said, we see no reasons why these advanced technologies return to company average margins. There's no reason at all. I think the challenge of any business that's growing at the pace in terms of the bookings momentum that we have on board right now is making sure that we effectively have the right level of investments in engineering to support that, and making sure that we're putting enough CapEx behind it to make sure that we have the capacity and drive to achieve that. So I think no, I see no reasons why these cannot return to our company average margins, but we are going to invest appropriately to make sure that the long-term growth trajectory in terms of revenue can be delivered.

Colin Langan -- UBS -- Analyst

And just lastly, any sense on what percent of sales those two businesses are today. I mean, is it something less, and I thought it was something around 15%. And are they -- any color on their overall profitability? I mean, how big is the margin gap versus their average today?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

No. What we have said -- so overall, I mean, I think if you think about what we've said is that we've talked about Power Electronics being a 50% revenue growth this year with GDi in terms of some of the China issues WLTP going negative, but we -- GDi today is about a $0.5 billion business for us and growing at pace in the outer years which I'll provide more color. And Power Electronics is growing at pace, and will excess $300 million. So we are in a strong position on both of those opportunities right now.

The key thing is the growth potential that we have. And if I talk about it again, the bookings momentum of the $9 billion bookings that we book this year, that is predominantly GDi and Power Electronics. And I think a lot of that will start translating into real revenue in the next couple of years.

Colin Langan -- UBS -- Analyst

All right. Thank you very much.

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from John Murphy with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

Aileen Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Good morning, guys. This is Aileen Smith on for John. Thank you for all the commentary and the 2019 outlook. If we think about some of the market pressures in the third quarter, where you guys landed at a low 9% operating margin, your implication for 4Q and then the preliminary 2018 guide of 9% to 10%, how do we bridge on a sequential basis, the implied step up in margins in the fourth quarter and then a step significantly back down into next year? Is that just a function of seasonality or are there particular factors that you expect will be much bigger headwinds into next year then for 4Q and possibly comparable or even more pronounced than in the third quarter?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

Hi, Aileen. It's Vivid here. So the Q4 numbers, we are confident of delivering the Q4. And so, in terms of why the step up versus Q3, there is a seasonality. Q4 is traditionally a stronger quarter in terms of the income that we deliver. Secondly, and importantly is the level of engineering spend. If you look at our engineering, we did have high planned engineering spend in Q3 and the Q4 will be lower than that. That's very important for us.

And I think the last point, an important one is the WLTP was an impact predominantly in Q3. And we -- I mean, which did have a margin as well as a revenue headwind for us. And we see that -- most of that issue dissipating with the limited impacts in Q4 versus what we had in Q3. So, we are reiterating the guidance of 11.3% to 11.5% and that assumes an uptick in the Q4 in line with what I've said.

In terms of the 9% to 10%, if I look at that, this is obviously full year, and I will provide more clarity. But mainly there are a few impacts on that. The first one really is the mix of the business that we have assumed in the past as well. Light-duty diesel, like I said will have a stronger 300 basis point impact on the top line, which again is about 75% program roll off, which we expect to see. That is obviously a slightly higher margin today. We certainly don't expect to have the same level of FX tailwinds that we've had this year that I've called out.

We also expect to spend more in terms of incremental engineering spend to support the bookings momentum that we have in place today. And we are going to have incremental commodity and tariffs exposure. I call that out at about $15 million incremental based on commodity and the Section 3 that we saw through the US, China.

But on the other side, we are absolutely focused on cost savings at this stage. And again Hari and I are focus clearly on that, and we're going to continue the sort of reallocation of the story in terms of cost base. And lastly, of course, we do have aftermarket that will and is on track to deliver the planned level of margin expansion that we've put forward.

Aileen Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Great. That's very helpful. Thanks for the color. And second question, I appreciate this is somewhat fluid depending on market factors and how you guys can execute and adjust your cost structure. But is there a rough rule of thumb that you guys think about internally for sort of required revenue growth in order to drive margin expansion?

In the past, we've kind of considered 5% revenue growth to be a key focal point above which suppliers are able to drive margins. So to the extent that your mid-term outlook for revenue growth appears to have improved from low single digit that you provided at your Investor Day last year to possibly mid to high single digits that you indicated in your slide deck today, should we also assume that this will drive a significant margin expansion, excluding some of the significant headwinds like engineering and commodities that you noted?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

So, we've never sort of publicly disclosed the rule of thumb around sort of 5%. But I think in general -- so first of all, I think the booking momentum that we have certainly gives us confidence in terms of revenue growth 2020 and beyond. We certainly feel that's there. Also the absence of light-duty diesel is going to be important as that sort of rolls off. I think that will be very important. But I think your comment around margin expansion given the volume projections that we see in GDi and Power Electronics particularly would imply operating leverage in relation to volume increases that will drive revenue and operating margin. So, I think, directionally, without going into the numbers, I think what you're saying is correct, yes.

Aileen Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Great. And on the CapEx side of the equation, the 7% as a percent of sales in 2019, being the more appropriate level to support new business bookings into next year, should we still be looking at 5% to 6% as a percent of sales, which you guys had indicated at your Investor Day a little over a year ago? Is that still the right way to think about CapEx over the longer term? And should we look at 2019 as -- go ahead.

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

No. So, I think the -- I think Aileen, I will provide more clarity. First of all, let me say, in terms of the CapEx of 7%, I want to be very clear. That CapEx increments that we're seeing, I will provide more color, but that incremental is all driven by the key technologies and booking momentum. We are still on track in relation to the one-time separation costs that we put in place, and the additional capital expenditure is all behind our key technologies and the bookings momentum that is out there.

I think longer term, as I said before, without going into numbers, we believe the part of the margin expansion and the cash flow return to more normalized level -- comes down to a more normalized level of CapEx. So, I think in terms of the way we're looking, we do believe that 2019 is relatively high to the normalized rates primarily because of the level of booking momentum that we have in place today.

Aileen Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Great. And last, just housekeeping item. You guys included commodities and tariffs together and sort of your margin performance drivers in the slide deck. Is there any way to estimate (ph) or break out those two separately, meaning, what's the impact of tariffs on your cost structure versus just generally inflating commodity costs?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, that's fine. I mean, certainly from a high level, I have briefly mentioned in the past, the number that we're expecting to be for the tariffs in relation to the S-301 for China for example is in the range of about $8 million to $10 million for 2019 incremental on top of what we book this year and the commodity ranges in the $3 million to $5 million range, incremental to what we book this year.

Aileen Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Great. That's very helpful. Thank you for the questions.

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. Our last question is from Armintas Sinkevicius with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Armintas Sinkevicius -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Great. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I guess my question is, we've seen a similar headwinds across the suppliers this quarter with relations to tariffs and China, et cetera. When I look at the decremental margins of the guidance that you put out there in early October, it implies 40% plus decremental margins for suppliers where we tend to expect 20% to 25% decremental margins. And that raises questions on given that we're seeing this for these headwinds for everyone. How much of this is macro versus operational structural challenges that you may be working through, and I don't know if there's sort of any color that you can provide there and wrap (ph) the decrementals?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure. I mean, if I talk more around what are the macro and the operational or structural, then I can talk about the margin profile. Certainly from a macro perspective, there are probably two impacts that are obviously impacting us. The first one on a macro is the China softness at this stage. And as I called out earlier, we are seeing China revenues in Q4 going down about 20% at this stage in terms of Delphi Technologies. So that is one macro.

And the other one really is a sort of FX story that we're being impacted by, and that's an important part of the second half performance. If you look at in H2 right now, FX headwinds for us are close to 30 basis points of margin dilution that is coming from that predominantly driven by China itself as the renminbi profile has changed. So I think from a macro perspective, the China softness with the local OEs which is relatively good margin as well as the FX impact of 30 basis points are probably the more macroeconomic elements toward our margins.

In terms of our own internal element, it really comes down to two major factors. We've called out the first one, which is the GDi and Power Electronics. We're going to have GDi in Europe, for example, the volume growth remains very strong. In Power Electronics, we expect that growth this year to be around about 50%. So that's a mix impact that we know about and we've called out.

We are also increasing our engineering spend in the second half of this year, and again I keep on coming back to it. But the level of booking momentum that we have in place right now is something that we are incredibly proud about and something that we believe is something that is putting us in very good shape for the future. And the one thing we are going to do is to invest now to make sure that that revenue projections and that capability that we have continues to be something that we believe can translate into real revenue.

So, I talked a lot there Armintas, but I think really from our perspective, China and FX really are the sort of more macroeconomic, whereas the sort of mix impacts of GDi, Power Electronics as well as the continued focus on engineering is probably more around the internal and operational that we face.

Armintas Sinkevicius -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Okay. And the China softness, the FX, that's down 20% and 30 basis point, is that margin dilution -- that's a year-over-year number?

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, that is. Yes.

Armintas Sinkevicius -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Okay. And then just with regards to your engineering spend and the products that are coming online, the launches, can you talk through the process as far as how much of it is sort of a normal launch or how much of it is with regards to the investments that you're making, the complexity of these launches that are upcoming?

Mary Gustanski -- Senior Vice President & Chief Technology Officer

So, this is Mary Gustanski. It's a mix, clearly. The greater level of bookings and the accelerated volumes are certainly creating more engineering dollars to ready for those launches. But additionally, what we're seeing is increasingly complex solutions particularly in Power Electronics as we enable more efficient electrification every OEM is trying to accomplish that. But they're trying to accomplish it in a best value way, a way that they can sell those vehicles at a reasonable price. And our role is to create the Power Electronics solutions that enable that. And so certainly there's a lot of engineering interacted. So, I would have to say, in a percentage basis, it is probably split when you think about it.

Armintas Sinkevicius -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Split between sort of normal course launches and (inaudible) more complexity.

Mary Gustanski -- Senior Vice President & Chief Technology Officer

Accelerated growth and more complexity.

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, that's how we are modeling it now. Yes.

Armintas Sinkevicius -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Okay. Great. Well, thank you for taking the questions. Much appreciated.

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you.

Hari N. Nair -- Interim Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And that does conclude our Q&A session for today. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Hari Nair for any further remarks.

Hari N. Nair -- Interim Chief Executive Officer

Thank you again for joining us on today's call. Just to summarize some of the key points Vivid and I have discussed, while we're operating in a dynamic and more challenging environment, our priority remains on the long-term value creation opportunity ahead of us. And as our strong bookings momentum demonstrates, we have an industry-leading portfolio of technologies that is fully aligned with our customers' needs.

The acceleration and demand that we're seeing for key technologies such as Power Electronics and GDi combined with the moderating transitions from power -- passenger car diesel and our customer mix in China, positions us for stronger revenue growth, margin expansion and improved cash flow as we look out beyond next year. In the shorter term, our focus will remain on cost control and operating cash generation, while continuing to prioritize investments to support our tremendous market opportunity. Thank you, everyone.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude today's program, and you may all disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

Duration: 65 minutes

Call participants:

Sherief Bakr -- Vice President of Investor Relations

Hari N. Nair -- Interim Chief Executive Officer

Vivid Sehgal -- Chief Financial Officer

Joseph Spak -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

David Tamberrino -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Brian Johnson -- Barclays -- Analyst

Colin Langan -- UBS -- Analyst

Aileen Smith -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Armintas Sinkevicius -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Mary Gustanski -- Senior Vice President & Chief Technology Officer

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This article is a transcript of this conference call produced for The Motley Fool. While we strive for our Foolish Best, there may be errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. As with all our articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your use of this content, and we strongly encourage you to do your own research, including listening to the call yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. Please see our Terms and Conditions for additional details, including our Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability.

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This article appears in: Personal Finance , Stocks
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