The results of our tracking poll, which asks the question, Do you expect the June 23 Brexit referendum result to be the UK leaving or staying in the EU, continue to show strong expectations that the vote will be to leave the European Union.
These latest results come with a larger sample size and are consistent with a trend that started when we began the poll three weeks ago. This is in sharp contrast to public polls that show a split opinion. So far there has not been lasting concern shown in the forex and stocks but if our poll is an indication, then these markets bear watching as the referendum comes closer into focus.
In any case, the extreme disparity between polls has caught our attention and we decided to investigate further. We asked our respondents why they think there is such a divergence between poll results. We received a good response to this follow up and the insights we received were quite revealing. See below for some of the insights we received and more will be posted in future articles.
Everybody I meet within my work and social environment seems to be for voting out and I meet many people and I haven't found anyone yet who is for in?
Not surprised by Brexit being favoured as this reflects what I glean from my statistically tiny circle of associates. Often quoted reasons - no trust in politicians (except Farage) or the Establishment / greater held concern about mass movements, immigration, asylum seekers and migrants than economy / suppression of proper debate / Project Fear / EU expansion / no control of borders / let's get our country back then kick on from there.
Everyone I speak to is more concerned with sovereignty and immigration and relaxing of red tape. Everyone is ready to accept financial instability for a period of time if BREXIT actually happens.
Because the pundits are all predicting on economics. The voters are more concerned with migration.
Finally, the big one of course is migration and border control. As long as we remain a member of the EU, Brussels will continue to tie us up in knots. Let us take control of own borders
I know that older people, like myself are more likely to vote. I also know that they and I will most likely vote to leave. I also know that in this, every single vote counts, not like a General Election. So the younger folk may not vote at all and I guess the polls are not going to every street in the country.
Also many people being polled are the younger generation who have not known better ... For 18 -30 generation all they have known is England's current plight ... they are blissfully unaware about the UK's gdp per head collapse. Their low wage , inability to purchase a home , useless pensions and collapsing health service seems not to bother them ?
Click to participate in our Brexit Poll
Latest Brexit Poll Results:
As the data below indicates, respondents polled over the last week overwhelmingly expected the vote to be for leaving the EU. One change vs. the prior reading is that expectations were strong for Brexit both inside and outside the UK. Our sample size grew strongly in the past week and now stands at 501 with most now from the UK (88%).
Brexit = leaving the EU: 85% vs. 58% in the prior week
No Brexit = staying in the EU: 15% vs 42% in the prior week
Brexit = leaving the EU: 91% vs. 83% in the prior week
No Brexit = staying in the EU: 9% vs 17% in the prior week
Brexit = leaving the EU: 53% vs. 12% in the prior week
No Brexit = staying in the EU: 47% vs 78% in the prior week
Breakdown: Total # of respondents:
UK: 88% vs. 55% in the prior week
Non UK: 12% vs. 45% in the prior week
To sum up, UK respondents continue to expect the vote to be for Brexit. Those outside the UK expressed similar sentiment this past week, reversing the trend of the first two weeks although the sample size is significantly smaller than those from the UK. Note the breakdown in our poll has shifted mainly to UK respondents (i.e. 88%).
Worth noting were factors cited that are influencing the Brexit vote, such as migration, frustration with the EU and age. I will be posting more of these insights in our future results articles so stay tuned.
As noted, this is an ongoing poll and for those who have not taken part in it, please click on the link below to submit your response.
Click to participate in our Brexit Poll
Jay Meisler, founder
Global Traders Associstion