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Aegerion (AEGR): What Awaits for the Stock in Q2 Earnings?


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Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. AEGR is expected to report second-quarter 2016 results on Aug 3. Last quarter, Aegerion recorded a negative earnings surprise of 242.59%. Let's see how things are shaping up for the company this quarter.

Factors at Play

Although Juxtapid, which is approved for the treatment of homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HoFH), remains the key growth driver at Aegerion, the drug has been witnessing decreasing sales in the U.S. due to a reduction in patients on therapy.

Launch of PCSK9 inhibitors - Repatha and Praluent - in the U.S. has dampened Juxtapid sales and will continue to do so in the upcoming quarters. Aegerion now expects Juxtapid sales to be in the range of $90-$100 million, compared with the previous projection of $120-$140 million. Consequently, net product sales are now expected in the range of $130-$150 million, lower than the previous guidance of $160-$190 million.

Moreover, the company is facing a tough time in commercializing the drug in ex-U.S. markets. The company also expects quantities and timing of orders for patient sales in ex-U.S. markets to remain choppy on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

A significant order from the Brazilian Ministry of Health will likely to be booked in the second quarter as expected earlier. In its first-quarter conference call, the company noted that it had then received net orders worth $6.2 million for the second quarter.

To mitigate the impact of persistent competitive pressures on the product, the company stated its plans to withdraw Juxtapid from the EU and certain other global markets by the end of 2016, unless it finds suitable partners. However, certain infrastructure in the EU will be maintained to support a potential launch of Myalept (metreleptin for injection), upon an anticipated approval in late 2017.

Aegerion had earlier announced plans to reduce the global workforce by the end of second-quarter 2016. Last month, the company cut the same by 13%. This came as a part of the company's strategy of lowering operating expenses and improving its cash position by 2017.

In June, Aegerion entered into a definitive merger agreement, under which it will combine with a wholly owned indirect subsidiary of QLT Inc., (QLTI) to form a global biopharmaceutical company, Novelion Therapeutics Inc. Novelion will focus solely on rare diseases. The transaction is expected to close late third-quarter 2016 or fourth-quarter 2016.

In its second-quarter conference call, we expect the company to shed more light on its plans on maximizing growth opportunities for Myalept and the restructuring agreement with QLT.

Surprise History

Aegerion has a mixed track record so far. The company has beaten estimates in three of the last four trailing quarters, with an average negative surprise of 6.08%.

AEGERION PHARMA Price and EPS Surprise

AEGERION PHARMA Price and EPS Surprise | AEGERION PHARMA Quote

What Our Model Indicates

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Aegerion is likely to beat estimates this quarter. That is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) for this to happen. But that is not the case here, as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, is 0.00%. This is because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at a loss of 25 cents.

Zacks Rank: Though Aegerion's Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of the ESP, the company's 0.00% ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing a negative estimate revisions.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few health care stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

Ironwood Pharmaceuticals IRWD has an Earnings ESP of +13.33% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is expected to report earnings on Aug 4.

Exelixis, Inc. EXEL has an Earnings ESP of +3.70% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to report results on Aug 3.

Impax Laboratories IPXL has an Earnings ESP of +3.03% and a Zacks Rank #2. The company is scheduled to report results on Aug 9.

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AEGERION PHARMA (AEGR): Free Stock Analysis Report

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.



This article appears in: Business , Investing , Earnings , Stocks
Referenced Symbols: EXEL , IRWD ,



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