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Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Soars to 52-Week High, Time to Cash Out?


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Have you been paying attention to shares of Advance Auto Parts (AAP)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 7.1% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $173.69 in the previous session. Advance Auto Parts has gained 73% since the start of the year compared to the 9.9% move for the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and the 30% return for the Zacks Automotive - Retail and Wholesale - Parts industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on August 14, 2018, Advance Auto Parts reported EPS of $1.97 versus consensus estimate of $1.85 while it beat the consensus revenue estimate by 2.7%.

For the current fiscal year, Advance Auto Parts is expected to post earnings of $6.97 per share on $9.5 billion in revenues. This represents a 29.8% change in EPS on a 1.33% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $8.13 per share on $9.68 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 16.66% and 1.87%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

Advance Auto Parts may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

Advance Auto Parts has a Value Score of C. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and B, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of B.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 24.7X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 19.7X versus its peer group's average of 14.2X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 2.01. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Advance Auto Parts currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Advance Auto Parts meets the list of requirements. Thus, it seems as though Advance Auto Parts shares could have a bit more room to run in the near term.


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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.



This article appears in: Investing , Stocks
Referenced Symbols: AAP



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