In
addition, the top 5 research firms are recognized based on the
number of awards their research teams earned in the above categories.
NASDAQ
will be hosting an awards banquet at the NASDAQ MarketSite in
New York in late May. "NASDAQ is helping to drive quality
and trust in equity research by joining with StarMine to celebrate
analysts and firms that outperform for investors, as well as those
analysts that demonstrated leadership by unlocking value in under-covered
stocks," said David Weild, IV, Vice Chairman of NASDAQ. "These
awards will help hasten a return in investor confidence, broaden
equity research coverage, and promote the efficient allocation
of capital to fuel our economy."
The
Top 10 Stock Pickers in the United States
StarMine evaluates an analyst's performance by simulating
portfolios based on the analyst's buy/sell/hold recommendations.
Unlike other analyst award programs, StarMine's system makes it
possible to fairly compare analysts across industries with disparate
sets of stocks covered. Each analyst's score is calculated relative
to the performance and dispersion of a benchmark derived from
the analyst's particular coverage list. To earn a high score,
the analyst must differentiate among his or her stocks well-the
analyst can't get a high score simply by the luck of being assigned
to a high-flying stock or industry. Many sell side firms, representing
over 20 percent of publishing analysts, have adopted StarMine
for internal use in analyst compensation plans.
Out
of the nearly 3000 analysts evaluated, the following analysts
received the highest overall stock picking scores in 2002:
| Rank
|
|
Analyst
|
Firm
|
Primary
Industry |
|
1
|
|
Pirsos,
Nick
|
Sandler
O'Neill
|
Insurance
|
|
2
|
|
Repetto,
Richard H
|
Putnam
Lovell
|
Diversified
Financials
|
|
3
|
|
Labbe,
Steven
|
Langen
McAlenney
|
Insurance
|
|
4
|
|
Leach,
William
|
Banc
of America Securities
|
Food
Products
|
|
5
|
|
Nisbet,
Paul H
|
JSA
Research, Inc.
|
Aerospace
& Defense
|
|
6
|
|
Moore,
Richard C
|
McDonald
Investments
|
Real
Estate
|
|
7
|
|
Green,
Peyton N
|
FTN
Financial Securities
|
Banks
|
|
8
|
|
Close,
Richard C
|
|
Commercial
Services & Supplies
|
|
9
|
|
Meyer,
Janice L
|
Credit
Suisse First Boston
|
Hotels
Restaurants & Leisure
|
|
10
|
|
Scialla,
Michael S
|
A.G.
Edwards & Sons
|
Oil
& Gas
|
The
overall winner, Nick Pirsos, covers insurance stocks for Sandler
O'Neill. While the stocks he followed were on average up 9 percent
last year, Mr. Pirsos' portfolio (created by over-weighting his
strong buys and buys and under-weighting his holds and sells)
was up 34 percent, beating his personal coverage benchmark by
a full 25 percentage points. A portfolio constructed only of the
stocks that he rated a "Strong Buy" would have returned
48 percent. That includes U.S. Selective Insurance (NASDAQ: SIGI),
which gained 42 percent during the periods he had a Strong Buy
on it. Similarly, a portfolio of stocks he rated a "Sell"
would have declined by 64 percent.
Overall
Top 5 Analysts for Stock Picking Among Under-Covered Stocks
New this year, NASDAQ and StarMine created a special award for
outstanding stock picking for analysts with the courage to recommend
lesser-covered stocks. These analysts frequently stand alone or
are among a very few to cover many of their stocks. The following
analysts are recognized in this category:
Analyst
|
Firm
|
Primary
Industry
|
|
Didion,
Steve
|
Hoefer
& Arnett
|
Banks
|
|
Montano,
Alexander G
|
C.K.
Cooper & Company
|
Oil
& Gas
|
|
Green,
Peyton N
|
FTN
Financial Securities
|
Banks
|
|
Rogers,
John B
|
D.A.
Davidson
|
Construction
& Engineering
|
|
Col,
Douglas L
|
Morgan
Keegan & Company
|
Road
& Rail
|
For
example, Steve Didion was the only analyst covering either American
River Holdings (NASDAQ: AMRB) or North Valley Bancorp (NASDAQ:
NOVB) last year. Mr. Didion was bullish on American River all
year and it was up 60% over the period. He also recommended North
Valley all year, which closed up 36 percent.
The
Top 10 Earnings Estimators in the United States
StarMine's Relative Accuracy Score (RAS) measures analyst performance
based on the accuracy of earnings estimates. It takes into account
the analyst's absolute forecast error, the analyst's errors compared
to other analysts, the variance of analyst estimates, and the
timeliness of the analyst's forecasts and revisions. The top overall
earnings forecasters of 2002 were:
|
Rank
|
|
Analyst
|
Firm
|
Primary
Industry
|
|
1
|
|
Zelman,
Ivy
|
Credit
Suisse First Boston
|
Household
Durables
|
|
2
|
|
Simmons
& Co
Research Team
|
Simmons
& Company
|
Energy
Equipment & Services
|
|
3
|
|
Casey,
Andrew M
|
|
Machinery
|
|
4
|
|
Bradley,
David
|
J.P.
Morgan
|
Auto
Components
|
|
5
|
|
Aydin,
Jack N
|
McDonald
Investments
|
Oil
& Gas
|
|
6
|
|
Ostrower,
Matthew
|
Morgan
Stanley
|
Real
Estate
|
|
7
|
|
Cheng,
Paul Y
|
Lehman
Brothers
|
Oil
& Gas
|
|
8
|
|
Farley,
Robin M
|
UBS
Warburg
|
Hotels
Restaurants & Leisure
|
|
9
|
|
Von
Rumohr, Cai
|
SG
Cowen
|
Aerospace
& Defense
|
|
10
|
|
Armacost,
Christin
|
SG
Cowen
|
Communications
Equipment
|
Ivy Zelman of C.S. First Boston achieved her number one ranking
through consistently accurate earnings forecasts, earning the
StarMine 5-star designation in the Household Durables industry
and a number one ranking on many of her covered stocks.
The Top 5 Research Firms
The following firms have earned the highest number of awards in
2002, including awards for stock picking overall, earnings estimates
overall, stock picking by industry, and earnings estimates by
industry:
|
Rank
|
|
Firm
|
|
1
|
|
Morgan
Stanley
|
|
2
|
|
Lehman
Brothers
|
|
3
|
|
|
|
4
|
|
Credit
Suisse First Boston
|
|
5
|
|
Prudential
Securities
|
The
number one firm, Morgan Stanley, did particularly well in stock
picking this year, earning 18 awards in the industry categories.
Lehman Brothers received the highest number of awards in the earnings
estimate accuracy categories.
More Details
To view the winners across each individual industry and the details
on StarMine's methodology, please visit www.StarMine.com.
NASDAQ
(OTCBB:NDAQ) is the world’s largest electronic stock market.
With approximately 3,600 companies, NASDAQ lists more companies
and trades more shares per day than any other U.S. market.
It is home to category-defining companies that are leaders across
all areas of business including technology, retail, communications,
financial services, media and biotechnology industries.
For more information about NASDAQ, visit the NASDAQ Web site at
www.NASDAQ.com
or the NASDAQ NewsroomSM
at www.nasdaq.com/newsroom.
About
StarMine
StarMine (www.StarMine.com) provides independent, objective ratings
of securities analysts around the globe by measuring their stock-picking
performance and the accuracy of their earnings forecasts. StarMine
helps professional investors monitor, filter, and profit from
the best sell-side research. StarMine also offers quantitative
models that predict market-moving changes in analyst expectations.
StarMine's SmartEstimatesSM-derived by putting more weight on
the most accurate analysts-successfully predict earnings surprises
with 70 percent accuracy. Thomson Financial is a strategic partner
of StarMine and the source of estimate and recommendation data.
A privately held company founded in 1998, StarMine is based in
San Francisco with offices in New York, London, Boston, Denver,
and Dallas.
Trademarks: SmartEstimate is a worldwide service mark and
StarMine is a registered trademark of StarMine Corporation.