Creating The Modern Fixed-Income Portfolio
Fixed-income investing often takes a backseat in our thoughts to the fast-paced stock market, with its daily action and promises of superior returns, but if you're a retired investor, or are approaching retirement, fixed-income investing must move into the driver's seat. At this stage, preservation of capital with a guaranteed income stream becomes the most important goal. In today's ultra-low interest-rate world, fixed-income investing has become much more complex, and gone are the days where one could invest in U.S. Treasuries at 8%, sit back, and let the income roll in.
Today, investors need to mix things up and get exposure to different asset classes to keep their portfolio incomes high, reduce risk and stay ahead of inflation. Even the great Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, suggested a portfolio mix of stocks and bonds for later-stage investors. If he were alive today, he would probably sing the same tune, especially since the advent of new and diverse products and strategies for income-seeking investors. In this article, we'll lay down the road map for creating a modern fixed-income portfolio.
Some Historical Perspective
From the very beginning, we are taught that stock returns outpace returns from bonds. While this has been shown to be true, the discrepancy between the two returns is not as great as one might think. The Journal of American Finance conducted a study, "Long Term Bonds Vs. Stocks" (2004). Using more than 60 staggered 35-year intervals from 1900-1996, the study showed that stock returns, after inflation was accounted for, measured an increase of about 5.5%. Bonds, on the other hand, showed real returns (after inflation) of roughly 3%.
The Long Bond in the Rearview Mirror
One of the most important changes to fixed-income investing in the 1990s and 2000s era is that the long bond (a bond maturing in more than 10 years) has given up its previously substantial yield benefit.
For example, take a look at the yield curves for the major bond classes as they stood on November 15, 2006:
There are several conclusions that can be reached from a review of these charts:
- The long (20- or 30-year) bond is not a very attractive investment; in the case of treasuries, the 30-year bond currently yields no more than a six month Treasury bill.
- High-grade corporate bonds provide an attractive yield pick-up to treasuries (5.57% to 4.56% for 10-year maturities).
- In a taxable account, municipal bonds can offer attractive tax-equivalent yields to government and corporate bonds, if not better. This involves an extra calculation to confirm, but a good estimate is to take the coupon yield and divide it by 0.67 to estimate the effects of state and federal tax savings (for a 33% tax bracket investor).
With short-term yields so close to those of long-term yields, it simply doesn't make sense to commit to the long bond anymore. Locking up your money for another 20 years to gain a paltry extra 20 or 30 basis points just doesn't pay enough to make the investment worthwhile.
This presents an opportunity for fixed-income investors, because purchases can be made in the five- to 10-year maturity range, then reinvested at prevailing rates when those bonds come due. When these bonds mature is also a natural time to reassess the state of the economy and adjust your portfolio as needed.
The current relationship between short-term and long-term yields also illustrates the utility of a bond ladder. Laddering means investing in eight to 10 individual issues, with one coming due every year. This can prevent you from having to forecast interest rates into the future, as maturities will be spread out over the yield curve, with opportunities to readjust every year as your visibility gets clearer.
Add Spice to Your Portfolio
Adding some solid, high-dividend paying equities to form a balanced portfolio is becoming a valuable new model for late-stage investing, even for folks well into their retirement years. There are plenty of large, established companies in the S&P 500 that pay yields in excess of current inflation rates (which are running at about 2.5% per year), along with the added benefit of allowing an investor to participate in corporate profit growth.
A simple stock screener can be used to find companies that offer high dividend payouts while also meeting certain value and stability requirements, such as those fit for a conservative investor seeking to minimize idiosyncratic (stock-specific) and market risks. Below is a list of companies with the following example screen criteria:
- Size - At least $10 billion in market capitalization
- High Dividends - All pay a yield of at least 2.8%
- Low Volatility - All stocks have a beta of less than 1, which means they have traded with less volatility than the overall market.
- Reasonable Valuations - All stocks have a P/E to growth ratio, or PEG ratio of 1.75 or less, which means that growth expectations are reasonably priced into the stock. This filter removes companies whose dividends are artificially high due to deteriorating earnings fundamentals.
- Sector Diversification - The chart below contains companies within all of the major sectors of the S&P 500. A basket of stocks from different sectors can minimize certain market risks by investing in all parts of the economy.
Figure 4: Average Yield = 3.25% - Source: Yahoo! Finance
To be certain, investing in equities comes with considerable risks compared with fixed income, but these risks can be mitigated by diversifying within sectors and keeping overall equity exposure below 30-40% of the total portfolio value.
Any myths about high-dividend stocks being stodgy, non-performers are just that - myths. Consider that between 1972 and 2005, stocks in the S&P that paid dividends paid a return of over 10% per year annualized, compared with only 4.3% over the same period for stocks that did not pay dividends. Steady amounts of cash income, lower volatility and higher returns? They aren't sounding so stodgy anymore, are they?
2. Real Estate
Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are another way to get some high-yielding securities in a conservative portfolio. They provide liquidity, trade like stocks and also have the added benefit of being a distinct asset from bonds and equities. REITs are a way to diversify our modern fixed-income portfolio against market risks in stocks and credit risks in bonds.
3. High Yield Bonds
High yield bonds are another potential avenue. The so-called "junk bonds" that offer above-market yields are very difficult to invest in individually with confidence, but by choosing a fund with consistent operating results, you can devote a portion of your portfolio to high-yield bond issues as a way to boost fixed income returns.
Many high-yield funds will be closed-end, which means that the price may trade higher than the net asset value (NAV) of the fund. Look to find a fund with little to no premium over the NAV for an extra margin of safety when investing here.
4. Inflation-Protected Securities
Next, consider Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). They are a great way to protect against whatever inflation might throw your way in the future. They carry a modest coupon rate (usually between 1 and 2.5%), but the real benefit is that the price will be adjusted systematically to keep pace with inflation.
It is important to note that TIPS are best held in non-taxable accounts, as the inflation adjustments are made through additions to the principal amount. This means that they could create large capital gains when sold, so keep the TIPS in that IRA, and you'll be adding some solid inflation-fighting punch with the security that only U.S. Treasuries can provide.
5. Emerging Market Debt
Much like with high-yield issues, emerging market debt is best invested in via a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF). Individual issues can be illiquid and hard to research effectively. But yields have historically been higher than advanced economy debt, and provide a nice diversification from country-specific risks. Like with high-yield funds, many emerging market funds are closed-end, so look for ones that are reasonably priced compared to their NAV.
A Sample Portfolio
This sample portfolio would provide valuable exposure to other markets and asset classes. The portfolio below (Figure 5) was created with safety in mind, but is also poised to participate in global growth through investments in equities and real estate assets.
A Note on Risk
There are risks associated with each type of investment listed here. Diversification among asset classes, however, has proved to be a very effective way to reduce overall portfolio risk. The biggest danger to an investor seeking principal protection with income is keeping pace with inflation, and a savvy way to reduce this risk is by diversifying among high quality, higher-yielding investments more than standard bonds.
Know When To Ask For Help
If it turns out that an investor's retirement plan will call for a periodic "drawing down" of the principal amounts as well as receiving the cash flows, it is best to visit a certified financial plannerä (CFPä), who can assist with both the investing and accounting side of a retirement plan, since the size of the portfolio will need to be measured carefully to determine the optimal level of cash flows, and maximizing tax savings will be crucial. A CFP can also run Monte Carlo simulations to show you how a given portfolio would react to different economic environments, changes in interest rates and other potential factors.
We Live in a World of Funds
There are fund options available for any investment method described here, and deciding whether to use one will come down to how much time and effort an investor wishes to devote to his or her portfolio. Choosing wisely is important here, because fees become crucial at this level - a fund aiming to throw off 5% per year in income or dividends is giving up a big slice of an already small pie with an expense ratio of even 0.5%. So keep an eye out for funds with long track records, low turnover and, above all else, low fees when traveling this route.
Fixed income investing has changed dramatically in just a short period of time. While some aspects have become trickier, Wall Street has responded by providing more tools for the modern fixed income investor to create custom portfolios. Being a successful fixed income investor today just might mean going outside the classical style boxes and using these tools to create a modern fixed income portfolio, one that is fit and flexible in an uncertain world.
by Ryan Barnes
Ryan Barnes has more than 10 years of experience in portfolio management and investment research, covering equities, fixed income and derivative products. Barnes has spent the past five years working as an institutional trader and manager for high-net-worth investors, working with Merrill Lynch, Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley and many others. Ryan is working currently as a writer and financial modeling consultant on hedging and capital appreciation strategies.