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Highlights
Inventories are definitely on the rise, the result of an abrupt slowing in sales. Wholesale inventories jumped 0.8 percent in August following a 1.5 percent jump in July (revised from +1.4 percent). Wholesale sales fell 1.0 percent following a 0.8 percent decline in July. The stock/sales ratio is up 4 tenths in two months, at 1.10 in August. Auto inventories are definitely a problem. They are piling up at the wholesale level, +12.6 percent year-on-year, at the same time that sales have slowed, -11.5 percent. Lumber, a smaller category, is also showing trouble. Transportation and housing are central areas of economic weakness.
Factory inventories, up 0.6 percent in August, are also showing trouble as have retail inventories where August data will be released with the business inventories report on Wednesday. Bloating inventories, besides being expensive for firms to maintain, will pull down future output and future employment.
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