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Highlights
Wholesale inventories jumped 1.1 percent in December in news that will help boost GDP but will raise concern that the economy may be slowing more abruptly than anticipated by supply chain managers. A small offset is that the gain was concentrated in nondurable products which reflect a price-sparked 9.2 percent monthly jump in petroleum. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.9 percent, swollen by a 3.5 percent rise in autos. Vehicle sales have been very soft, leading to a back up in inventories and pointing to a new round of manufacturer incentives. Inventories of lumber and electrical equipment also rose, likely reflecting the housing slowdown which was especially severe in December.
Sales at the wholesale were very weak, down 0.7 in December and including a 2.0 percent sales drop in durable goods. The sales-to-inventories ratio may be very lean for the history books but more importantly it increased a noticeable 2 tenths to 1.09, in what could prove an early signal of overhang.
Inventories of durable goods, data released early last week, rose 0.8 percent in December. Retail inventories, the last category to be released, will be part of the business inventories report on Wednesday.
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