The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy. Why Investors Care
| Released on 11/13/08 For Oct 2008 | ||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||
Highlights
Driven higher by $115 billion in TARP outlays and $21.5 billion in purchases of mortgage securities from government agencies, October's deficit at the Treasury was a numbing $237.2 billion, far beyond estimates and well beyond the nearest highs of $175.6 billion in February this year and $165.9 billion in May. Receipts are also part of the problem, down 7.5 percent year-on-year in October. Outlays are up 71 percent. October is the first fiscal month of the government's year. There was no immediate reaction to the data which unfortunately look to become commonplace as receipts recede and outlays, driven by bailout spending, spike.
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed surplus for September - a tax payment month - that was substantially less than expected, at $45.7 billion and was a much larger surplus than for September of last year at $112.9 billion. The fiscal year 2008 deficit came in at a record $454.8 billion compared to a much smaller deficit of $161.5 billion in fiscal 2007. Looking ahead, the month of October typically shows a moderate deficit for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for the month of October has been $39.3 billion and $55.5 billion over the past 5 years. But given continued deterioration in revenues and increased demands for expenditures, the October shortfall is likely to be dramatically higher.
Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for October 08: -$92.0 billion
Range: -$210.0 billion to -$65.0 billion.
![[Chart]](chart.gif)
|
The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government. |
| 2008 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
powered by
![[Econoday]](../../../../../../../../../images/logo.gif){kind=logo}