The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy. Why Investors Care
| Released on 10/14/08 For Sep 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The federal surplus for September, a tax payment month, was substantially less than expected, at $45.7 billion vs. a much larger surplus last September of $112.9 billion. The fiscal year 2008 deficit came in at a record $454.8 billion vs. a much smaller deficit of $161.5 billion in fiscal 2007. Treasury Secretary Paulson blamed the housing sector for the deterioration, citing the sector's impact on the capital markets and on economic growth.
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a deeper-than-expected $111.9 billion deficit in August. The fiscal year-to-date deficit was up 76 percent from this time last year, at $483.4 billion with two months still left in the government's fiscal year. Receipts were down 1.4 percent year-to-date, led by weakness in corporate taxes and individual taxes. At the same time, outlays were up 7.0 percent, led by an 11 percent jump in defense spending.
Looking ahead, the month of September typically shows a moderate surplus for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average surplus for the month of September has been $49.2 billion and $50.8 billion over the past five years.
Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for September 08: +$70.0 billion
Range: +$30.0 billion to +$100.0 billion.
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The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government. |
| 2008 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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