The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy. Why Investors Care
| Released on 5/12/08 For Apr 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The Treasury budget surplus for April came in at $159.3 billion for April, matching market expectations for a $160 billion surplus. April's number, however, was below the April 2007 surplus of $177.7 billion. The fiscal year-to-date deficit for 2008 remains quite large compare to that for last year, a $152.2 billion deficit versus $80.8 billion. Fiscal year-to-date receipts have slowed to a 3.0 percent gain while outlays were up 7.4 percent. Individual income tax receipts are up 6.0 percent while corporate income taxes are down 14.7 percent.
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a deficit of $48.1 billion for March. Looking ahead, the month of April typically shows a moderate surplus for the month. However, we are likely to see a larger-than-average bump up in the surplus that typically occurs in April when income tax returns are due. The tax rebate program probably encouraged more filers to mail in their returns on time and this should boost the surplus for April. Over the last ten years, the April surplus has averaged $107.7 billion.
Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for April 08: +$160.0 billion
Range: +$120.0 billion to +$170.0 billion.
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The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government. |
| 2008 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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