The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy. Why Investors Care
| Released on 3/12/08 For Feb 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The Treasury's deficit for the month of February totaled $175.6 billion, making for a fiscal year-to-date deficit of $263.3 billion -- up 62 percent from this time last year. Outlays are on the rise, up 10.2 percent year-to-date and reflecting rising spending on defense and higher interest payments, which are a result of the rising debt. Receipts are up this fiscal year, but only by 1.3 percent. Individual income taxes are barely higher and corporate taxes are 15 percent lower. Rising spending and falling receipts, and the risk that receipts will fall further as the economy weakens, are making the budget deficit a bigger and bigger issue for the economy and for the value of the dollar.
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report is continuing to show a soft economy as revenues have been down compared to the prior year. Four months into the Treasury's fiscal year and the federal deficit is indeed on its way to a doubling, at a fiscal year-to-date deficit of $87.7 billion vs. $42.2 billion this time last year. Data for January, a surplus month, was disappointing, showing a smaller than expected surplus of $17.8 billion. Tax receipts are down this year while outlays, led by defense, are on the rise. Looking ahead, the month of February typically shows a moderate deficit for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for the month of February has been $79.7 billion.
Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for February 08: -$157 billion
Range: -$175 billion to -$120 billion.
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The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government. |
| 2008 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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