The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy. Why Investors Care
| Released on 2/12/08 For Jan 2008 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
Four months into the Treasury's fiscal year and the federal deficit is indeed on its way to a doubling, at a fiscal year-to-date deficit of $87.7 billion vs. $42.2 billion this time last year. The deficit is expected to exceed $400 billion this year, vs. $162 billion in fiscal year 2007. Data for January, a surplus month, is the latest disappointment, showing a smaller than expected surplus of $17.8 billion. Tax receipts are down this year while outlays, led by defense, are on the rise. News on the nation's trade outflow will be posted on Thursday.
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget showed a slightly lower than expected surplus of $48.3 billion in December, up from a $42.0 billion surplus in the year-ago month but not enough to keep the fiscal year to date deficit from widening, now 31 percent deeper than a year ago. Special factors gave a boost to November's surplus as a corporate tax date increased receipts and a transfer payment date held down payments at the expense of November. The month of January typically shows a moderate surplus for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average surplus for the month of January has been $35.5 billion.
Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for January 08: $21.0 billion surplus
Range: $15.0 billion surplus to $40.0 billion surplus.
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The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government. |
| 2008 Release Schedule | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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