The U.S. Treasury releases a monthly account of the surplus or deficit of the federal government. Changes in the budget balance of the annual fiscal year (which begins in October) are followed as an indicator of budgetary trends and the thrust of fiscal policy. Why Investors Care
| Released on 12/12/07 For Nov 2007 | ||||||||||||
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Highlights
The nation's budget deficit is going in the wrong direction so far this fiscal year. In the second month of the fiscal year, November, the deficit totaled $98.2 billion vs. a November 2006 deficit of $73.0 billion. But the Congressional Budget Office said $17 billion of transfer payments, due to a calendar quirk, were pulled into November from December. Outlays rose at a nearly 11 percent year-on-year rate but without the quirk would stand at 6 percent.
But even the 6 percent rise in outlays is above the 5 percent rise in receipts, and prospects of a slowing economy point to lower receipts ahead. The nation's other deficit, the trade deficit posted just this morning, continues to run just under $60 billion a month. Treasury International Capital data on Monday will offer the latest information on foreign willingness, weak dollar or not, to continue investing in U.S. securities.
The U.S. Treasury monthly budget report showed a deficit for October of $55.6 billion versus a deficit in October 2006 of $49.3 billion. October is the first month of the Treasury's fiscal year, which so far is off to a bad start at an increase of 12.8 percent. The month of November typically shows a moderate deficit for the month. Over the past 10 years, the average deficit for the month of November has been $45.6 billion.
Treasury Statement Consensus Forecast for November 07: -$90.0 billion
Range: -$101.0 billion to -$72.3 billion.
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The federal budget balance is not seasonally adjusted. Consequently, it is useful to compare the current month's budget deficit or surplus to the same month for a couple of years. Some months are known to have large surpluses because quarterly estimated tax payments are received by the government. |
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